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Doug Casey Calls AI a Super Bubble, Bets on Energy, Gold Miners and Grains
Authored by Bridget Bennett. Originally Published: 7/6/2026.
Key Points
- Doug Casey argues today's AI infrastructure buildout mirrors history's biggest speculative manias, and warns that even profitable "picks and shovels" suppliers could get swept down if the broader data center boom unravels.
- He sees deep value in energy, naming Ecopetrol and Petrobras for their high single-digit dividend yields, alongside uranium and coal as the unglamorous power sources he expects to fuel AI long after any bubble bursts.
- Casey's most contrarian picks are small-cap gold and silver miners—where all-in sustaining costs near $1,700 against $4,000 gold are finally generating real margin—and agricultural commodity ETFs tied to corn, wheat, and soybeans he sees sitting at cyclical lows.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
AI bubble fears keep resurfacing, and depending on who you ask, the story is either just getting started or already cracking at the edges. Doug Casey, founder of International Man and a self-described technophile who has invested for more than 50 years across 155 countries, falls firmly into the second camp. He thinks the AI trade isn't just a bubble. He thinks it's a historic mania, and he's putting his money in three places most investors aren't looking: energy, mining, and farm commodities.
Casey doesn't dispute that artificial intelligence will reshape the world. What he questions is whether the companies building it out today have any real path to earning money from it. That tension runs through his entire pitch.
A Super Bubble, Not Just a Bubble
I endorsed someone else's model for the first time (Ad)
Porter Stansberry spent 30 years ignoring outside investment systems - until he met Emmet Savage in Dublin. Savage's model, built on Hamiltonian mechanics applied to equity analysis, has delivered nearly 2,000% returns over 17 years with only one losing year.
What convinced Porter wasn't the returns. It was the sell discipline - a framework that identifies the exact moment a position's energy begins to decay, signaling an exit before the decline. He calls it the most rigorous sell system he has ever seen, comparing its edge to RenTech's famed Medallion Fund.
Watch Porter's full breakdown of Project Prophet and Emmet's systemCasey's read on the market is blunt. He believes today's AI spending could eventually be compared with historical manias like the Mississippi Bubble or the South Sea Bubble, and possibly even dwarf the 1929 stock market crash. Margin debt has surged roughly 50% over the past year, by his estimate, and he sees retail investors pouring money into companies with little revenue and no earnings.
He uses SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) as his case study. Casey's concern—that most of the capital Elon Musk has raised is flowing into data centers and AI rather than the core rocket business—is now playing out in public markets. SpaceX completed its IPO in June and carries a market cap above $2 trillion, even as it posts steep GAAP losses tied to its AI and infrastructure buildout.
His broader point: a company can be technologically dazzling and still be a poor investment if the price already assumes a future that hasn't arrived.
That skepticism extends to the picks-and-shovels trade as well. Memory chips, cooling systems, and power suppliers feeding the data center boom do generate real earnings today. But Casey calls the whole setup a daisy chain. If the data center buildout gets recognized as a massive misallocation of capital, he expects the suppliers to be pulled down with it.
Why Energy Still Looks Cheap
The first place he'd put money has nothing to do with AI: old-fashioned energy, and not just oil and gas. He's also positioned in uranium and coal, which he considers the unglamorous fuel sources that will keep the lights on regardless of what happens to the AI trade.
Energy stocks made up about 20% of the S&P 500 back in 1980. Today, that figure has shrunk to roughly 4%, even as oil and gas remain just as critical to the global economy. With West Texas Intermediate crude trading around $70 a barrel, Casey sees a sector the market has simply stopped paying attention to.
He's looking outside the U.S. for the best entry points. He favors Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Colombia's national oil company, and Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (NYSE: PBR), Brazil's equivalent, both of which offer high single-digit dividend yields.
He also likes Meren Energy (TSE: MER), a smaller offshore African oil producer with a roughly $1 billion market cap and a similar payout, plus unexplored concessions he believes give it real upside beyond current oil prices. For investors wary of emerging-market exposure, he notes Alberta, Canada, is home to small oil and gas names yielding 5% to 7%.
On power, Casey is unambiguous. Nuclear, in his view, is the safest, cheapest, and cleanest form of mass power generation, and coal works in the near term as well. His core argument: even if the AI trade collapses, the demand for electricity it created isn't going away.
Nuclear stocks were the hottest trade in the market as recently as late 2024. The fact that nearly every name in the sector has since sold off is precisely what makes the entry point interesting to him.
The Case for Small-Cap Gold Miners
Mining is an industry he calls a terrible business, but one he's owned stocks in for most of his investing life. With gold trading near $4,000 an ounce, he isn't buying the metal itself as a speculation. What he sees as undervalued are the companies that mine it.
The math is what excites him. Industry-wide, the all-in sustaining cost of producing an ounce of gold runs around $1,700. With gold prices roughly double that figure, miners are generating real margin for the first time in years, yet mining stocks represent only about 2% of the S&P 500. Casey expects that gap to close and sees potential for tenfold returns across the sector, with some smaller names capable of going much further.
These are mostly nanocap companies, often run by founding entrepreneurs, and they're prone to volatility, fraud, and outright failure—Casey references Mark Twain's famous line about a gold mine being a hole in the ground with a liar at the entrance.
He won't name specific stocks publicly, given how thinly traded they are. What he will share is his screening framework: a set of nine criteria he calls the Nine Ps, covering factors like management track record, geological quality, access to capital, and jurisdictional stability. His point is that volatility and risk aren't the same thing, and at current prices, he believes the odds tilt toward investors who do their homework.
Corn, Soybeans, and a Fertilizer Shortage
The third area doesn't involve stocks at all. Agricultural commodities—specifically corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice—supply roughly 60% of the calories consumed worldwide, and right now, prices for all of them are sitting at or below breakeven for farmers. In his view, a cyclical commodity bull market is setting up from those depressed levels.
A looming fertilizer shortage adds urgency to his case. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have cut off significant flows of sulfur and urea, both byproducts of natural gas and critical inputs for crop production.
He expects food prices to rise over the next several years regardless of what happens to AI stocks.
For most investors, he recommends commodity ETFs over futures contracts. He specifically points to the Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSEARCA: CORN), noting that similar vehicles exist for wheat and soybeans.
The reasoning circles back to his opening point: dollars are losing value, bonds carry interest rate, credit, and currency risk all at once, and tech stocks are priced for a future that may not arrive on schedule. Raw materials, in his view, are where safety and upside happen to overlap right now.
The Contrarian Case
The AI story isn't going away—Casey freely acknowledges that. But he'd argue that's different from saying the stocks are worth owning at any price. Keep an eye on energy dividends and grain prices. Those are the signals he's watching.
Carnival's Second Quarter: Is the Stock Still Complicated?
Authored by Peter Frank. Originally Published: 6/25/2026.
Key Points
- Carnival posted record adjusted net income, EBITDA, and customer deposits in its fiscal second quarter, with revenue rising 5.3% year-over-year to $6.66 billion.
- Shares fell roughly 5% after earnings as cautious forward guidance, Middle East tensions, and elevated fuel costs raised concerns about future net yields.
- Twenty-six analysts covering Carnival hold a consensus Moderate Buy rating with a 12-month average price target of $35.13, representing more than 20% upside.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
Carnival (NYSE: CCL) just reported its second fiscal quarter, and the numbers make it clear the company is still sailing in the right direction. But warning signs of rough waters ahead spooked investors.
Based on the latest figures, Carnival continues to post one of the stronger post-pandemic recoveries in travel. For the three months ended May 31, the company reported record revenue, adjusted net income, net yields, and customer deposits. Even with geopolitical tensions and significantly higher fuel costs, net income rose more than 20%.
I endorsed someone else's model for the first time (Ad)
Porter Stansberry spent 30 years ignoring outside investment systems - until he met Emmet Savage in Dublin. Savage's model, built on Hamiltonian mechanics applied to equity analysis, has delivered nearly 2,000% returns over 17 years with only one losing year.
What convinced Porter wasn't the returns. It was the sell discipline - a framework that identifies the exact moment a position's energy begins to decay, signaling an exit before the decline. He calls it the most rigorous sell system he has ever seen, comparing its edge to RenTech's famed Medallion Fund.
Watch Porter's full breakdown of Project Prophet and Emmet's systemStill, the company’s forward guidance did little to calm nerves, overshadowing an otherwise positive quarterly performance. The stock slid sharply after earnings were announced and closed the day down roughly 5%.
Most analysts still like the stock, but investors should recognize that real strengths come with real risks.
Strong Quarterly Results Beat Expectations
Carnival’s second-quarter results were solid. Net income came in at $537 million, 5% lower than a year earlier, though adjusted net income, which strips out one-time items, reached $569 million, up more than 21% year over year. Overall, revenue of $6.66 billion represented a 5.3% increase from the same period last year.
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was a record $1.58 billion, up from $1.5 billion a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were 39 cents, and adjusted EPS rose more than 15% to 41 cents, up from 35 cents in the prior-year period and above analysts’ expectations.
The company also said it repurchased more than $450 million of its stock and, with a dividend yield of 2%, distributed $207 million in dividends during the latest quarter.
Healthy Margins Despite Higher Fuel Costs
While the headline figures were impressive, the unit economics were also encouraging. Net yields in constant currency rose 2.2% for the quarter. Continued price discipline showed up as well, as adjusted daily cruise costs per bed, excluding fuel, held essentially flat year over year.
Predictably, fuel was the most visible cost challenge during the quarter. Carnival noted that the increase in earnings per share came despite fuel prices and currency movements, which lowered per-share earnings by 6 cents, equal to an overall hit of $73 million for the quarter.
Given 30% higher fuel costs, gross margin yields were down 3.9%. But with adjusted earnings still hitting records, the operating model appears to be holding.
An additional bright spot was a 5.6% improvement in fuel consumption per available lower berth day, suggesting that operational efficiency was at least partially offsetting price pressures.
Debt Reduction Continues to Strengthen the Balance Sheet
The latest numbers also show Carnival’s recovery continuing after more than three years in the making. When the global cruise industry shut down during the pandemic, Carnival took on enormous debt to survive, suspended its dividend, and watched its stock collapse from the low $50s to nearly $7 in just a few months.
The recovery has been methodical and convincing. As of May 31, long-term debt had dropped to $23.4 billion, continuing a steady decline from $32 billion near the end of 2022. The company’s net interest expense improved in the latest quarter to $285 million from $341 million a year earlier.
Strong Demand Faces External Risks
The rest of the year looks strong for the company, though concerns remain.
On the plus side, customer deposits, or the amount consumers have paid to book a cruise months in advance, hit a record $9 billion by the end of the quarter, up more than $450 million compared with the prior-year record. In all, Carnival has booked 93% of its capacity and expects record net yields for the rest of the year, the company’s CEO said.
That positive outlook, however, is paired with cautionary forward-looking concerns. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have significantly cut into Carnival’s operations in the Mediterranean Sea, and concerns linger about demand and net yields going forward.
While earnings for the second quarter came in above analysts’ expectations, revenue missed analysts’ projections by a fraction. Further instability in high-tourist areas could continue to cut into passenger bookings.
Energy costs also remain a significant variable that can shift results quickly. And weather disruptions, macroeconomic slowdowns, or a shift in consumer spending priorities could each trigger a slowdown that’s not easy to offset. The consumer discretionary sector is always subject to volatility, and competitors such as Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE: NCLH) are stepping up their offerings.
Wall Street Remains Optimistic
Overall, Wall Street analysts like what they see. Of the 26 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a Moderate Buy, with a 12-month average target price of $35.13 per share, up more than 20% from current levels.
After finally recovering from its collapse five years ago, shares are up roughly 12% over the past three months. That upside became even more attractive after the pullback that followed Carnival’s second-quarter earnings—a reaction similar to what occurred after its first-quarter report.
In all, 21 analysts recommend Buy, while five rate the stock a Hold. The highest price target is $45, while the lowest is $28.70 per share.
Carnival Appeals Most to Aggressive Investors
For investors, the choices seem clear. Carnival Corporation has just delivered its best-ever quarter by several key measures, and the record customer deposit balance suggests demand is not fading.
Aggressive investors who are willing to accept cyclicality and balance-sheet risk could likely find the stock interesting. For those who believe in the durability of consumer travel demand, Carnival offers a combination of strong fundamentals, forward momentum, and meaningful upside.
Conservative investors seeking a dividend yield above 2%, more predictable results, and greater balance-sheet strength might prefer other options.
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