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Semtech’s Explosive Rally May Only Be Getting Started
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 5/28/2026.
Key Points
- Semtech is critical to AI data centers, but also to 5G and the IoT, all critical to AI's application.
- Analysts lifted price targets following the company's earnings release, underpinning a healthy uptrend and upside potential.
- Institutions pose a risk, having sold into the rally and potentially hindering upside until later this year.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
Semtech (NASDAQ: SMTC) has emerged as a critical AI play for several reasons. On the surface, its data center products are essential for connectivity and networking, helping link servers, large clusters, racks, and entire data centers. The bigger picture is even more compelling. Semtech is not only well-positioned to benefit from data center growth, but it is also exposed to telecommunications and the Internet of Things (IoT), which enable AI applications at the edge.
The company's recent earnings report showed that business is strong across product lines, particularly in data centers, and that trend is expected to accelerate.
Trump Admin to Pump $1 Billion into this “Off-the-Radar” AI Stock (Ad)
The U.S. government pumped more than $1 billion into Intel. The stock popped 128%. It pumped $400 million into MP Materials. The stock popped 200%. It bought 10% of Trilogy Metals. The stock popped 500%. And now, Trump has chosen this AI stock for a $1 billion payday.
Click here for the full story and stock pick (free).Takeaways from other leading AI names point to the same dynamic: AI infrastructure spending tends to drive new applications, new use cases, and higher demand.
Given that backdrop, investors can reasonably expect Semtech’s three core businesses to continue strengthening for the foreseeable future.
That makes consensus forecasts look too conservative and sets the stage for a persistent cycle of outperformance and analyst upgrades.
Semtech’s Blowout Q1 Confirms AI Spend Is Real
Semtech’s earnings report matters because it reflects growing strength in one of the market’s hottest areas since the DotCom bubble. The company’s results confirm that capital spending, data center buildout, and AI infrastructure growth are real. Semtech reported $291 million in net revenue, a drop in the bucket compared with NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) quarterly haul, but this is a nuts-and-bolts play, not a primary hardware supplier. The important details included revenue growth of nearly 16% year over year (YOY), more than 250 basis points (bps) above consensus, and an expected acceleration in the current quarter.
Margin news was also bullish. GAAP results were mixed, including non-cash impairments and share-based compensation, but the adjusted results were more clearly positive. They showed wider margins and record-setting performance, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) up 34% YOY and more than 1,000 bps above estimates.
Guidance is why new highs remain likely for this stock. The company expects revenue to grow by more than 12% sequentially and 27% YOY next quarter, and that outlook is likely conservative. The most likely outcome is that Semtech outperforms again and issues another bullish update, keeping analysts in revision mode.
The analyst response to Semtech’s results and guidance was mixed: two ratings were cut to Market Perform or the equivalent, but those downgrades were offset by a larger number of price target increases. Those increases underscore Semtech’s shifting business profile, lifting the consensus estimate by more than 75% almost overnight. The consensus now points to a fresh high as of late May, and the upper end of the range would imply another 30% upside from there.
Institutions Cap Semtech Gains in Q2 2026
Institutions are a risk investors should watch. They own a substantial 99.45% of the stock and have been selling into the rally. If that continues, SMTC shares could struggle to advance unless a powerful catalyst appears. In that scenario, retail traders and FOMO may take over, creating volatility and potentially pushing shares lower. The more likely outcome, however, is that the institutional headwind fades now that the Q1 results are out.
The question is whether institutions will return to accumulating SMTC, and that may not happen without a pullback. SMTC shares gained more than 100% in April and May, leaving the stock well above any level that could be considered strong support. The worst-case scenario is a decline toward $138 or lower, while the best case is that SMTC consolidates near its late-May highs until later in the year, when more news is available.
SMTC Stock: Correction Ahead, But the Trend Is Your Friend
The chart action is clearly bullish, but it also suggests a correction is likely before new highs are set. The key factor is MACD convergence, which indicates that new highs remain likely despite the pullback; it is only a matter of time. For traders, the main risk is the depth and timing of the rebound, which may not come until late summer. Other risks include valuation, which already reflects a robust growth trajectory. Any signs of weakness, slowing, hiccups, or delays will likely show up in the stock price.
Catalysts include demand for next-generation products, including optical, sensing, and power-handling technology, as well as capacity expansions. Executives say demand is outstripping supply and plan to double or triple existing production. Their plans include expanding current facilities, outsourcing manufacturing, pursuing strategic partnerships, and nearshoring or onshoring additional capacity. Shipments of next-generation products are already underway and are expected to ramp over the coming quarters.
Consumer-Driven Stocks Boost Buybacks, Including Visa's $20B Plan
Reported by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 5/18/2026.
Key Points
- Consumer-driven stocks have boosted their buyback capacity significantly, from 5% to 12% of their market capitalizations.
- This includes payments giant Visa, which added huge buyback capacity alongside a great earnings report.
- Another name plans to continue large buybacks after lowering its share count by more than 30% in less than five years.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
Several stocks tied to consumer spending have recently announced significant share buybacks. These companies are looking to add tailwinds to their share prices. By reducing share count, each remaining share represents more value for owners, all else being equal. Let’s dive into the key buyback news surrounding these consumer names.
Visa’s Buyback Capacity Exceeds $30 Billion After Record Quarter
First up is the biggest name in the payments industry: Visa (NYSE: V). Although it operates in the finance sector, consumer spending is arguably the largest driver of Visa’s business, generating fees as transactions move through its payment network.
Trump Admin to Pump $1 Billion into this “Off-the-Radar” AI Stock (Ad)
The U.S. government pumped more than $1 billion into Intel. The stock popped 128%. It pumped $400 million into MP Materials. The stock popped 200%. It bought 10% of Trilogy Metals. The stock popped 500%. And now, Trump has chosen this AI stock for a $1 billion payday.
Click here for the full story and stock pick (free).Visa hasn’t had a strong start to 2026, with shares down more than 5%. However, the tide began to turn with the company’s latest earnings report. Visa beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines, and net sales growth was especially impressive at 17.1% year over year (YOY). That marked the company’s strongest net sales growth rate since 2022. Overall, Visa shares jumped 8.3% after the report, one of the stock’s largest moves higher in recent memory.
To cap off its strong results, Visa added a massive $20 billion to its buyback authorization, bringing total buyback capacity to $33 billion. That equals roughly 5.5% of the company’s approximately $600 billion market capitalization. Notably, this comes after Visa recorded its highest quarterly buyback spending ever, totaling $7.9 billion.
In calendar Q1 2026, Visa shares fell more than 13%, marking their largest quarterly decline since Q1 2020, when the market tumbled on COVID-related shocks. This clearly suggests Visa saw an opportunity in its share price and accelerated buybacks to record levels.
Positive and Negative Indicators Surround Pool
Next up is Pool (NASDAQ: POOL). As its name suggests, the company’s business revolves around swimming pools. It provides pool supplies, including cleaning chemicals, as well as equipment used in pool construction and remodeling.
Pool has certainly had a rough stretch over the past several quarters. Since the start of 2025, shares are down more than 45%, and the stock has declined more than 20% in 2026. The pool industry has been in a significant slump. Sales dropped by more than 10% YOY in 2023, but improved to -0.4% YOY in 2025.
So, trends are improving, but not as quickly as the market would like. Shares sank 14% after Pool’s February earnings report. Its 2026 guidance called for 3% adjusted earnings per share growth, which would mark the company’s first EPS increase in several years. However, that figure still fell well short of expectations.
Notably, Pool has made a significant buyback announcement, increasing its repurchase capacity to $600 million. That represents a very hefty 9.3% of the firm’s approximately $6.4 billion market capitalization. Another sign of confidence is the $6.28 million worth of insider buying Pool has seen in 2026. The firm has also appointed a new CEO, John B. Watwood, as Pool looks to turn things around. On the other hand, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) recently sold its position in Pool.
Boyd: Online Gambling Growth and Big-Time Shareholder Returns
Boyd Gaming has delivered a mixed performance lately, up around 10% since the start of 2025. In 2026, the stock is down more than 5%. Boyd operates numerous casinos across the United States, with locations in Las Vegas, the Midwest, and the South, as well as an online casino business. Total sales have risen steadily in the low- to mid-single-digit range over the past several years. The company’s online revenue growth has been especially strong, exceeding 40% YOY in 2024 and coming in near 17% YOY in 2025. However, online sales fell more than 4% YOY in the latest quarter.
Notably, Boyd uses buybacks extensively. The company says that over the past four and a half years, it has reduced its share count by 33%. Boyd recently added $500 million in buyback capacity, bringing total capacity to $700 million. That represents a very large 11.9% of the company’s approximately $5.9 billion market capitalization.
Boyd also outlined its buyback pace, saying it plans to continue spending $150 million on repurchases per quarter. Combined with its indicated dividend yield near 1%, that creates a sizable capital return program. Boyd estimates these actions will amount to around $9 in per-share value for shareholders in 2026. That is significant, considering Boyd’s share price is around $80.
Visa Buys Itself, Berkshire Exits in Q1
Visa’s buyback spending last quarter stands out among this group. If Visa proves that the market undervalued it in Q1, the company could create meaningful value for shareholders. Visa also now has a sizable war chest to continue repurchasing stock if investors turn on the company again. However, it is interesting to note that, in addition to selling Pool, Berkshire Hathaway completely sold its Visa position in Q1.
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