Hello, Thanks for signing up for MarketBeat Daily Ratings—we’re excited to have you on board. Every weekday, you’ll get a curated summary of new “Buy” and “Sell” ratings from Wall Street’s top-rated analysts, the latest stock news, and bonus investing content—all delivered straight to your inbox. You’re just two quick steps away from completing your sign-up: 1. Make sure our emails go to your inboxGmail users:
Mobile: Tap the three dots (…) in the top right and select Move to Inbox or Move to Primary
Desktop: Click the folder icon at the top and select Move to Inbox or Primary Apple Mail users:
Tap our email address at the top (next to From: on mobile), then select Add to VIP Other providers:
Reply to this message and add newsletters@analystratings.net to your contacts 2. Confirm your subscriptionClick this link to confirm your subscription. This verifies your account and ensures you receive your newsletters without interruption instead of getting stuck in your spam filter. Confirm your subscription here. After you confirm, feel free to download our popular free report, "7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever" with this link. Thanks again for subscribing—we look forward to being part of your investing journey. 
Matthew Paulson
Founder and CEO, MarketBeat. P.S. If you didn’t mean to subscribe, no problem—you can unsubscribe here.
Special Report
This AI Lender Has Big Upside Potential—And Big RisksSubmitted by Peter Frank. First Published: 4/19/2026. 
Key Points
- Pagaya connects lenders and investors using AI to expand credit access without holding loans on its balance sheet.
- The company reached profitability in 2025, marking a major shift after years of losses.
- Analysts see around 133% upside, but the stock remains highly volatile and sensitive to credit markets.
- Special Report: The Biggest IPO Ever: Claim Your Stake Today
Take a company that blends fintech, artificial intelligence (AI), consumer lending, and asset-backed securities (ABS), and investors can expect volatility. Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY) has proven just that. Last year, the company—which has dual headquarters in New York and Tel Aviv—posted its first annual profit since going public in June 2022. Revenue grew 26%, and analysts point to more than 100% upside potential from current prices. Yet the stock has declined substantially from its highs—down roughly two-thirds from its September peak—and is about 30% lower this year.
The mainstream explanation for the Iran airstrikes may not be the full story. Addison Wiggin, Founder of Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, says there's a deeper motive behind the bombing campaign that most coverage is ignoring.
If you're making investment decisions based on what you're hearing in the news, Wiggin argues you could be working with an incomplete picture. Read Addison Wiggin's full breakdown of the real Iran story
That plunge in share price doesn’t necessarily mean the business is broken. It’s more characteristic of a high-risk, high-reward fintech navigating an uncertain market. For investors willing to ride out the volatility, the gap between today’s price and where analysts expect the stock to trade in a year is hard to ignore. How Pagaya’s AI-Driven Model WorksPagaya is not a traditional bank or lender. It operates an AI-powered network that sits between lenders and the institutional investors who buy consumer loan packages in the form of ABS. When a borrower applies for a personal loan, auto financing, or point-of-sale credit through one of Pagaya’s partners and the originating lender doesn't approve the application, Pagaya’s AI evaluates the request. If accepted, the loan is routed into a securitization that Pagaya structures and sells to investors. Rather than holding the credit risk, Pagaya earns a fee for each loan it moves through the platform. Overall, the platform has evaluated more than $3.5 trillion in loan applications since its founding and has sold over $34 billion in personal loan ABS. Financial Performance Shows a Turning PointSince its founding in 2016, Pagaya pursued growth while wrestling with profitability. That changed last year: the company swung from a $401 million loss in 2024 to an $81 million profit in 2025. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose 76% to $371 million. Revenue increased 26% to $1.3 billion, and network volume—the total of loans flowing through the platform—grew 9% to $10.5 billion. Both results were helped by Pagaya expanding originations in auto and point-of-sale loans beyond its earlier focus on personal loans. Q4 2025 was particularly strong. Fourth-quarter revenue and other income rose 20% year-over-year to $335 million. GAAP net income of $34 million was a quarterly record and at the high end of the company's guidance. Earnings per share came in at $0.80, above analysts' forecasts of $0.75 per share. For 2026, management expects network volume to increase from $11.25 billion to $13 billion. Revenue is projected between $1.4 billion and $1.575 billion, implying another year of solid growth, and GAAP net income is forecast at $100 million to $150 million. Pagaya's Stock Volatility Tells a Fintech StoryThe stock’s turbulent path mirrors that of many fintech peers. After surging around its IPO in 2022, Pagaya’s shares later plunged, prompting a 1-for-12 reverse stock split in 2024 to help boost the share price. In 2025, shares rebounded, rising roughly fourfold through September when PGY hit a 52-week high near $45. This year, however, the stock has lost roughly one-third since the start of the year and more than 45% since a recent high in January. Despite the volatility, most analysts remain bullish. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it a Buy and two rate it a Hold. The consensus is a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $33.11—roughly 130% above current levels. Risks Center on Credit Markets and CompetitionSkepticism is understandable. Pagaya’s model depends on institutional investors continuing to buy its ABS and on lending partners routing applications through its network. A disruption in credit markets or a spike in consumer loan defaults could reduce both channels significantly. So far this year, capital markets activity has been healthy. In April, Pagaya closed an $800 million consumer loan ABS sale and completed its first auto ABS of the year. The consumer loan offering was increased by 33% due to strong institutional demand, the company said. Also, because equity-based compensation is substantial, insider selling has appeared in SEC filings following the 2025 run-up. Pagaya doesn’t pay a dividend, so returns for shareholders depend primarily on growth. Competition from banks building in-house AI credit models and from rival platforms could quickly pressure Pagaya’s results. A High-Risk Bet With Meaningful Upside PotentialPagaya is not a stock for conservative investors. Volatility may continue. The business model is complex, and a down credit cycle with pullback across the financial sector could seriously dampen results. But for investors with higher risk tolerance who believe AI-driven consumer lending represents a long-term growth opportunity, Pagaya’s first-year profitability, strong 2026 guidance, active ABS issuance, and a stock trading well below analyst targets make it worth consideration. The company appears to have turned a corner. Whether the stock follows remains to be seen. |
