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Alphabet: After Its Best Quarter in Decades, Is It Time to Buy?
Written by Ryan Hasson. Published 10/3/2025.
Key Points
- Alphabet posted a 38% surge in Q3, its best performance since 2005, driven by a favorable court ruling and notable beats in its Q2 earnings report.
- Solid AI adoption, double-digit revenue growth, and a favorable DOJ ruling reinforced confidence in its business model.
- Shares are trading at a P/E of 26, near historical averages, with $240 as key support and $250 as the breakout level to watch going forward.
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has staged a remarkable comeback.
After lagging the market in the first half of the year — facing competitive threats in artificial intelligence (AI), pressure on its advertising stronghold, challenges to Google Search, and ongoing regulatory headwinds — the tech giant has posted its strongest quarterly stock performance in nearly two decades.
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The question now: after such a run, is it still time to buy or has the easy money already been made?
A Historic Quarter
In the third quarter of 2025, Alphabet delivered a staggering 38% gain in its stock, its best quarterly return since Q2 2005. For a mega-cap company approaching a $3 trillion market cap, that level of performance is rare. Investors who bought while the shares were pressured — when fundamentals were intact but valuation lagged — have been well rewarded. For those on the sidelines, the dilemma is whether this renewed strength still offers further upside.
Why Q2 Results Fueled the Rally
Alphabet's rebound wasn't accidental. It followed strong fundamentals in the company's Q2 2025 earnings, reported on July 23. Revenue rose 14% year-over-year to $96.43 billion, beating estimates of $94 billion. Earnings per share climbed 22% to $2.31, above the $2.17 consensus.
The strength was broad-based, with two growth engines standing out: Google Cloud and YouTube. Cloud revenue increased 32% to $13.62 billion, and the segment surpassed $50 billion in annual recurring revenue. YouTube ad revenue rose 13% to $9.79 billion, reaffirming its dominance in online video.
Crucially, Google Search held up better than feared. Search revenue grew 11.7%, well above analyst expectations of 8%, easing concerns about a structural decline and suggesting AI could enhance — rather than erode — Alphabet's core business.
Adding to the bullish case, Alphabet caught a major regulatory break. A U.S. court decision in the Department of Justice's antitrust case stopped short of the harshest remedies, such as breaking up Chrome or forcing divestitures, removing a long-standing overhang and helping fuel the rally.
Valuation: Not Cheap, But Reasonable
With fundamentals back on solid footing, valuation is no longer deeply discounted. Alphabet trades at a trailing P/E of about 26, slightly below its 10-year average of 28. Its forward P/E is higher but remains reasonable compared with peers in the computer and technology sector.
Year-to-date, shares have risen nearly 30%. While some investors may worry about chasing momentum, Alphabet continues to post double-digit revenue growth, strengthen its cloud and AI positioning, and maintain advertising dominance. Viewed in that context, the rally may not be overextended.
Technicals: $240 Is the Key Level
Technically, Alphabet is consolidating after its explosive Q3 run. Shares recently pulled back from about $255 to $240, where they've found firm support. That level now represents the key line in the sand.
If GOOGL can hold $240 and push above $250, it would confirm a higher low and suggest the potential start of a new leg higher. Conversely, a decisive break below $240 could signal a short-term shift in momentum. With Q3 earnings due in November, expect volatility — and the possibility of further upside if the company extends its streak of strong results.
GOOGL Is Still Worth Watching Closely
Alphabet's transformation from laggard to leader has been swift and decisive. Strong Q2 results, regulatory relief, and AI-driven momentum helped power its record-breaking Q3 stock rally. Valuation is no longer deeply discounted, but it remains reasonable for a company with Alphabet's growth, profitability, and market position.
For long-term investors, pullbacks near $240 could present attractive entry points. For traders, a breakout above $250 may signal the next wave of momentum. Either way, Alphabet's comeback has reaffirmed its place near the top of the tech hierarchy, and investors should keep it on their radar.
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