It's Your 100 Percent Accurate Oscar Calls!The Awards Squad Takes Last Bets Before Hollywood's Longest Night
Dear Wags, The Awards Squad is about to hang up this season’s jersey. We have sat through endless rounds of preliminary competition to arrive at our final calls before the Oscar telecast on March 2. We’ve often lamented that, with each passing year, the Academy Awards drifts further from the hub of cultural discourse. Still, every niche activity has its obsessives, and we’re here to serve. The competition becomes more volatile as the pictures get more esoteric. For those who pay attention, this year’s field of contenders is as quirky as any in Oscar history—more global, experimental, and unhooked from mainstream sensibilities. There are two blockbusters among the Best Picture nominees, but at least in this rarefied venue, art has definitively defeated commerce. The decline of Hollywood is freeing up its premier awards body to recognize the avant-garde. So, let’s do this: Our first prediction is that the Oscar telecast will likely disappoint those expecting it to be a white-hot engine of memes. The real energy in this tense political moment is rising far from Hollywood, and no podium speech gins up outrage the way it used to. A wheezing entertainment press will do its best to find “moments,” but if you are looking for viral pushback against Trumpism, it is more likely to rise in a Michigan town hall meeting than at the Dolby Theatre. We might go further here and say that expecting Hollywood to serve as a vanguard against the populist right has not done it, or the Democratic Party, any favors. The hypocrisies are far too obvious. Famous people will speak out—and should be able to do so without fear of retribution—but a genuinely popular opposition must rise from the ground up. That said, we expect the speaking out to be sparky, with the Oscars arriving after a month of Muskian provocations. Conan O’Brien, sharp but reassuring, is a perfect emcee for a night that will reward interesting projects that have not made their producers a fortune. That hardly means they are not worthwhile. The dilemma, as always, is how to make important work that is also profitable. In an era where leading the cultural conversation is at least as important as box office receipts, the industry can still break through. Broad hits like Wicked can be read as message movies, but as we keep saying, Hollywood needs more of them. The rest of it is simple math. We’re not saying this year’s frontrunners are locks, but the results of the preliminary awards contests have declared the favorites. The SAG Awards, always interesting because actors are the largest Academy voting bloc, have set us up for some genuinely intriguing moments in the acting categories. Sean Baker’s Anora is solidly positioned to win Best Picture, but we still have our doubts. Despite exhaustive polling and historical insight, we can see an Oscars full of upsets this year: a path for Conclave, a win for Fernanda Torres, and validation for Flow. The payoff of such an unsettled season is that, for at least a few minutes, the Academy Awards may actually be entertaining. And no matter who you bet on, that’s a win. Yours ever,
Best Picture
Looked at one way, the Best Picture race has been nip and tuck all the way through. There were moments when most of these nominees were hyped as having a lane to victory. To name a couple: Emilia Pérez came in hot and then imploded, while The Brutalist was heralded as the future of cinema, but its campaign never gelled. Still, Anora started strong, winning the Palme d'Or at Cannes in May, and closed like a champ, racking up the Independent Spirit, PGA, and DGA awards. The odds seem overwhelming, but then there’s Conclave, the BAFTA and SAG winner (remember how many actors vote for the Oscars)—a starry movie with old-fashioned appeal. We’d love to see Conclave take it in a squeaker and can’t rule out a Brutalist comeback, but Anora is both arty and accessible, which seems like the secret sauce. Advantage: Anora Directing
Corbet (that’s Cor-bay!) crafted a sprawling critique of the American Dream on a shoestring budget, wowing critics and winning both a Golden Globe and a BAFTA. But if he’s the future of cinema, he still has to get past Baker—a singular filmmaker beloved by fellow directors. They proved it by awarding him the DGA honor, which sets him up nicely to win this year’s Oscar. Baker also prevailed at the Independent Spirit Awards and became the first American director to win the Palme d’Or since 2011. Cannes is rarely predictive of Oscars success, but this year, it seems to have been on the money. In this battle of auteurs, we think it’s Baker’s turn. Advantage: Sean Baker
Actor in a Leading Role
How nice it would be to see Domingo surprise everyone and take this for his wonderful work in Sing Sing. Unfortunately, it’s not going to happen. We can also dream of Fiennes—a beloved veteran—pulling off an upset, but he hasn’t won a single major award this season. Brody has collected every major acting laurel except SAG, whose members likely struggled to sit through The Brutalist. We’re not saying Chalamet couldn’t swoop in and deny him an Academy Award—tee up those New Generation of Movie Star columns—but we still don’t think it’s likely. Advantage: Adrien Brody
Actress in a Leading Role
Oy, this category! For several years running, it’s been a nail-biter. If the Academy were to reward the actress in the most traditional Oscar role—a big, showy part in a serious dramatic movie—that would be Torres, who is riveting in I'm Still Here. Problem: Her movie is in Portuguese. By the numbers, the frontrunner is Moore, as much for her career arc as for her risky professional turn. She’s already snagged Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG honors, and her acceptance speech about being a Hollywood survivor could bring the house to its feet. Problem: The Substance is pretty gross. Madison is sensational in Anora, and in our view, she’s a much bigger threat here than Chalamet is in the Best Actor race. She won at the Indie Spirits and got everybody aflutter by grabbing the BAFTA. That said, this may be Moore’s best shot at winning an Oscar. The Academy will probably give her that career capstone. Advantage: Demi Moore
Actor in a Supporting Role
You can tie yourself up in knots trying to map out different scenarios here. A vocal contingent envisions Strong as The Big Surprise, winning for his turn as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. Pearce and Norton are great in everything, and Borisov broke out in a movie that awards season voters adore. Yes, Culkin’s character in A Real Pain is a lot like the role he played in Succession. Guess what? He’s hoovered up every preliminary laurel. If he doesn’t win this one, the Dolby audience will gasp. Advantage: Kieran Culkin
Actress in a Supporting Role
Welcome to the most settled argument in the major categories. Saldaña has dominated this race, winning every honor for a showy part in Emilia Pérez. She’s gliding into the winner’s circle unless there’s a miracle last-minute burst of enthusiasm for Rossellini, who brought everything to a small but pivotal role in Conclave. We’ll also put in a word for Barbaro, a biting, beguiling Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown. She’ll get another shot at this. Whatever your beef is with her movie, Saldaña won’t be denied here. Advantage: Zoe Saldaña
Animated Feature Film
Here’s where we break with conventional wisdom. We’ve been backing Flow—a lyrical little Latvian movie about castaway animals coming together in adversity—all season, even though The Wild Robot was a critically lauded, gorgeously rendered studio hit. The Wild Robot took home the top prize at the Annie Awards—the animation world’s Oscars—so the safe money stays on it. But Zilbalodis’s environmental fable keeps chugging along, winning both a Golden Globe and an Indie Spirit Award. With the disclaimer that we’re following our hearts as much as our heads, we’re going with the Flow. Advantage: Flow International Feature Film
Oscar season often feels too long, but for some pictures, it can be brutally short. Unfortunately for Emilia Pérez, it seems to be both. Not long ago, Jacques Audiard’s hallucinatory musical looked poised to cruise to victory in this and several other categories—and it probably would have if the Academy Awards had been held back in January. However, the controversy surrounding its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, took the wind out of its sails, just as voters were getting a look at Brazil’s gripping I’m Still Here. We’re betting the Academy will reward another, more sober Latin American movie about forced disappearances. It’s also a chance to honor Fernanda Torres, whose performance has garnered widespread acclaim. There’s not enough time for Emilia Pérez to turn things around, but just enough for I’m Still Here to resonate with voters. If there’s a possible spoiler, it’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, a powerful tale of repression in Iran—but it hasn’t made much noise since its Cannes debut. Advantage: I’m Still Here Documentary Feature Film
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