Rishi's stealth tax on Midlands workers - employers criticise Spring Statement

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Economy faces 'Horsemen of the Apocalypse' as household incomes fall

Horsemen of the Apocalypse

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse as portrayed by Hungarian artist Albrecht Durer in 1498

West Midlands MP Saqib Bhatti says he's receiving letters and e-mails from constituents struggling with the cost of living - and he expects the numbers to increase.


The Conservative MP admits: "I think I will get more. We all have to be very honest about this."


Another Conservative, East Midlands MP Sir Edward Leigh, told the House of Commons the economy is facing challenges from "at least two of the four horsemen of the apocalypse, death from plague and war."


Those are some of the comments after Chancellor Rishi Sunak's Spring Statement, a mini-Budget delivered in the House of Commons. Tory MPs welcomed the statement and the measures it contained, but admit their constituents are still going to struggle.


The problem is that prices are rising faster than incomes. And Mr Sunak's measures may help, but not enough to stop us becoming poorer.


The big Spring Statement announcements


Key measures in the Chancellor's statement yesterday included:

  • The threshold at which people pay National Insurance will increase by £3,000 to £12,575-a-year. It means 30 million people will pay less - a cut of £330 each on average. As a result, 70% of all workers will have their taxes cut even though the Government is increasing the rate of National Insurance by 1.25%.
  • Fuel duty was cut by 5p per litre from 6pm Wednesday night until March next year. 
  • Employment Allowance will increase to £5,000 from April, which Mr Sunak described as a "new tax cut" worth up to £1,000 for half a million small businesses.

But there's a stealth tax on Midlands workers


Treasury documents show the National Insurance measures will save workers a total of £6bn a year. But they also show that the Chancellor is to gain an extra £35 billion over five years - and £11 billion in 2022-23 alone - by increasing repayments made on student loans.


The payments, of course, are made by graduates, not students. In other words, by working people. And the Government's own impact assessment reveals people in the Midlands and North will be clobbered by the changes.


This is because salaries are lower here than in the south, and people on lower incomes face the biggest increase in payments.


The impact assessment states: "Alongside younger and female borrowers, those likely to see some negative impact with increased lifetime repayments under the reforms ... are more likely than average to have characteristics of white or black ethnicity, from disadvantaged backgrounds, or reside in the North, Midlands, South-West or Yorkshire and the Humber."


Get set for the biggest fall in incomes since record began


The Office for Budget Responsibilty, the Treasury's official watchdog, warned that even after the measures in the Spring Statement, household incomes are to fall in real terms, meaning after inflation is taken into account, by 2.2% in 2022-23.


Office for Budget Responsibilty Chair Richard Hughes said: "This would be the biggest single financial-year fall in living standards since records began 66 years ago."


Mr Sunak's supporters in the Conservative Party admit the next couple of years will be hard. Mr Bhatti, MP for Meriden, in the borough of Solihull, said that when the UK ended Covid-19 restrictions "everything opened up in our economy, other countries followed, and there was global strain on supply chains.


"With the war on Ukraine by Putin, the price of oil has skyrocketed. That has meant we've had something called cost push inflation. The price of things has just gone up, not just in oil but things like wheat and corn and all sorts of raw materials."


Labour wants a windfall tax on energy firms


Labour, both locally and nationally, have called on the Government to impose a windfall tax on energy companies and use the money to cut VAT on fuel.


Ian Ward, the Labour leader of Birmingham City Council, said: "Labour would have introduced a windfall tax on the big profits being made by the North Sea oil and gas companies - with that money used to reduce people's gas and electricity bills."


Meanwhile, Conservatives in Birmingham have been calling on the city council to freeze council tax for the next four years. They say this would save households £125-a-year.


Sir Edward Leigh, MP for Gainsborough in Lincolnshire, asked the Chancellor to consider tax relief on the cost of minor operations. He said pensioners are increasingly forced to go private because of long NHS waiting times.

Rishi Sunak
 

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said inflation will continue to rise

Households are already facing higher heating bills and spending more in supermarkets, and some simply can't afford it.


Jane Haynes, of Birmingham Live, has been speaking to managers at a Birmingham foodbank who are seeing the effects at first hand.


She reports on Sarah, a single mum of two from Smethwick, who said: "My daughter was crying with the cold - I had to make a choice. It was either put the heating on or feed the kids."


The Guardian has also visited a food bank in Hodge Hill, Birmingham. Volunteer Pat Woolridge told their reporter: "We've had people come here who have had no money to feed their meter, and they have no electricity, and when they get to us they're really hungry."


Mr Sunak admitted inflation could reach almost 8%. But it's already running at 5.5%, official figures showed this week.


What does this mean for household budgets? The Office for National Statistics, the official body that measures these things, has produced a detailed breakdown.

  • It shows the cost of food has risen by 5.1%. To put it another way, what cost you £10 a year ago will now cost you £10.51.
  • And some prices have shot up faster than others. The cost of fruit has risen by 6.2%.
  • The cost of milk, cheese and eggs is up by 6.1%.
  • Non-alcoholic drinks are also more expensive. Coffee, tea and cocoa are up by 7.5%. If you used to spend £10 on these products a year ago, that's now £10.75.
  • And the cost of clothes has risen by 8.8% - while shoes have gone up by 9.1%.
  • As we all know, fuel bills have risen. Electricity bills rose by 19.2% over 12 months, and household gas rose by 28.3%. That's before the huge increase in prices coming into effect in April, with another major increase likely towards the end of the year.

Sunak "ignored the plight" of struggling firms, say employers


Business leaders were not impressed by the Spring Statement. 


East Midlands Chamber of Commerce chief executive Scott Knowles said: "It's clear from the Chancellor's warning about the 'unusually high uncertainty' around the economic outlook – coupled with confirmation that inflation rose by 6.2% in February and will hit a projected 7.4% in 2022 – that businesses and communities should prepare accordingly for a continuation of the spiralling price rises over the coming year.


"Despite acknowledging these challenges, there wasn't anything significant for firms to grasp as a potential route out of a renewed economic crisis that still lingers on the horizon."


Henrietta Brealey, chief executive of Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce, said: "Additional support for households struggling with energy bills is welcome, but there was no equivalent scheme for businesses that would have greatly benefited from an energy price cap and additional grant funding."


She warned: "It was noticeable the Chancellor chose to ignore the plight of those firms that are still suffering from the long tail of Covid-19."

What we're reading

We've grown used to Chancellors sending some money to the Midlands. Not this time. There was no cash for train stations or Metro schemes. And Rishi Sunak mentioned Levelling Up only once.


But the Government must deliver on levelling up if it wants to retain the support of voters who switched to the Tories in 2019, according to Adam Hawksbee, former Head of Policy at the West Midlands Combined Authority and now Deputy Director of Conservative-leaning think tank Onward.


Time is running out to make Levelling Up a reality

By Adam Hawksbee, Deputy Director of Onward.


The Chancellor's Spring Statement didn't scream Levelling Up. The phrase was only mentioned once during his speech, and there was no reference to the 12 missions that were published in the White Paper just over a month ago.


This shouldn't be too surprising - global events demanded a rapid response to rising inflation, energy price hikes and other elements of the cost of living crisis. Cuts to fuel duty and removing VAT on retrofitting will protect people at the pumps while keeping the net zero agenda on track.


Increasing the National Insurance threshold will put money back in people's pockets to help ease the impact of inflation, and the surprise announcement of a cut in income tax from 20p to 19p suggests more tax cuts to come. 


A closer look at the statement reveals bigger impacts on the Levelling Up agenda. Cuts to fuel duty disproportionately benefit people outside the South, with people in Yorkshire paying four times as much on fuel duty as a percentage of their income compared to London.


Changes to the  Apprenticeship Levy and R&D Tax Credits could both be a big part of rebuilding industry in the Midlands and the North - so the Chancellor's commitment to reviewing them is welcome.


But Levelling Up was never just about policy - it was about politics. Between 2017 and 2019 the midpoint of the Conservatives electoral gains moved from Buckinghamshire to Sheffield.


A quarter of these voters lent their support to the Conservatives, partly based on Brexit but also on the broader promise of levelling up - that their economies would grow and their communities would strengthen.


The Chancellor is making a big bet that these voters will thank him for tax cuts as we approach 2024. To some degree they will - our polling has shown that for the past four years the proportion of people who think taxes should go down has increased.


But it is unlikely to be enough. People want to see and feel changes in their areas - with thriving high streets, new job opportunities, lower anti-social behaviour and more community assets like town markets.


The Levelling Up White Paper promised to make this happen through a radical cross-government programme. Local leaders would be empowered under a new devolution framework, Whitehall officials would adopt a more place-based perspective, and new investment would be channelled from business and philanthropy to local areas.


This ambitious agenda was absent from the Spring Statement.


Time is running out for the Chancellor to deliver these long term changes. He will rightly have kept his powder dry given levels of uncertainty in estimates for the Office for Budget Responsibility. But the 2024 election is only two years away, and policy changes take time to be felt in communities.


Pressure will therefore be mounting on the Chancellor in the run up to the full Budget in the Autumn. Given how events have unfolded in the last few years, it's a gamble for him to hope the fiscal outlook will be any better.

 
 

Coming up

April 4: Midlands transport body Midlands Connect will be hosting its Annual Conference on Monday 4th April in conjunction with Midlands Message.  Speakers include Andrew Stephenson MP, Minister of State at the Department for Transport, Nottinghamshire Mayor and MP Ben Bradley, and West Midlands Mayor Andy Street.

What's the gossip?


Staffordshire MP Jonathan Gullis has been recalling his school days - and revealed he is still terrified of his old PE teacher.


The Stoke North MP said: "I remember that Wednesdays from one o'clock meant games for the entire year group. A variety of football, hockey, rugby, netball and many other sports would be available to us for two to three hours.


"That meant we were getting high-quality physical education from fantastic teachers, such as Mr McCollin, whom I still dread and fear to this day.


"When I went back to see him 12 months ago, I still looked down and called him sir, because of the fear he brought when it came to being disciplined."

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Midlands Message is a newsletter covering politics and public affairs from across the Midlands. We aim to bring you news and expert analysis about the issues that matter to our region, and highlight the key stories from journalists across the Midlands.

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