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AST SpaceMobile’s Next Launches Could Decide Whether Its Rally Regains Orbit
Written by Jessica Mitacek. Publication Date: 7/13/2026.
Key Points
- AST SpaceMobile shares have swung sharply in 2026, rising 35% in late June before giving back nearly half those gains by early July.
- Strategic partnerships with Rakuten, AT&T, Verizon, and others, plus an accelerated BlueBird satellite launch schedule, support the company's bullish long-term case.
- Mounting net losses, a widening cash burn rate, repeated earnings misses, and a consensus Reduce rating highlight persistent risks facing the stock.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
Midland, Texas-based AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) has been a battleground stock for bulls and bears this year.
Among space stocks, it has been one of the most volatile names, with its fair share of ups and downs throughout 2026, including a 59% run-up to its all-time high on May 28 and a series of double-digit peaks and troughs mixed in.
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Click here to get Jason Bodner's top pick for freeThat trend has continued over the past month. Shares surged more than 35% from their one-month low on June 25 through June 30. But since the calendar turned to July, the stock has given back nearly half of those gains, with ASTS now down more than 17% from that recent high.
With its beta now at 2.69, the SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) rival and space-based direct-to-device (D2D) cellular broadband provider is likely positioned for more of the same. But a combination of potential catalysts and headwinds will ultimately decide whether AST SpaceMobile can break back into the green during the second half of the year.
Tailwinds: Strategic Partnerships, Bundled BlueBird Launches, and Increased Operating Efficiency
AST SpaceMobile’s bull case remains largely intact, in large part because the company has maintained its first-mover advantage in the space-based D2D market.
That has led to a host of formal strategic agreements that have cemented the company’s status.
Most recently, ASTS received a boost from Japan's $912 million satellite communications push. That brought AST SpaceMobile’s existing partnership with Tokyo-based Rakuten (OTCMKTS: RKUNY) back into the spotlight while raising hopes for a major D2D rollout. The two companies are forming a joint venture that is targeting regulatory approval for D2D operations in Japan, with initial commercial services expected to begin later in 2026.
The company also has agreements with nearly 60 global mobile network providers, totaling more than three billion subscribers, and strategic partnerships in place with AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD), Rakuten, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and real estate investment trust American Tower (NYSE: AMT), among others. Over the long term, those relationships should continue to drive AST SpaceMobile's top-line growth and could translate into strong earnings for patient investors.
An accelerated launch schedule for the company’s low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellites—the largest commercial arrays currently in operation—serves as another catalyst. A simultaneous launch of the next three satellites, including BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13, is scheduled for early August from Cape Canaveral, Florida, aboard a Falcon 9 rocket.
The bundled launches should go a long way toward helping AST SpaceMobile meet its 2026 launch target of 45 BlueBirds in LEO. According to President Scott Wisniewski, the company is in the process of producing and assembling satellites through BlueBird 37.
Headwinds: Mounting Costs, Launch Targets, Earnings Misses
Scaling at the pace and size the company is pursuing comes at a steep cost. AST SpaceMobile posted a net loss of $342 million in 2025, nearly 969% higher than its net loss in 2022 after its first full year of operation as a publicly traded company. In Q1, that loss widened significantly to $191 million.
As the company ramps up its launch production and schedule, analysts are forecasting a full-year cash burn rate between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion.
Another potential headwind is AST SpaceMobile’s lofty BlueBird launch target. While that also serves as a near-term challenge, it could present longer-term issues as well. Unforeseen launch complications and mishaps—like the Blue Origin deployment of BlueBird 7 into an insufficient orbit back in April—could adversely affect AST SpaceMobile’s ability to meet its year-end launch target. BlueBird 7 was subsequently deorbited, yet the company has maintained that it can reach its goal of having 45 LEO satellites deployed by the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, sentiment has been negatively affected by a series of consecutive earnings per share (EPS) misses. AST SpaceMobile remains unprofitable, but its negative EPS has missed the analyst mark for five straight quarters, with only two beats in the past 11 quarters. This has played a major role in outflows from impatient investors who have been waiting for the stock—which had its IPO in April 2021—to finally turn a corner.
Where Wall Street Stands
The smart money appears to be erring on the side of caution when it comes to ASTS.
Sentiment is tepid, with just one of the 10 analysts covering the stock assigning it a Buy rating.
Overall, it holds a consensus Reduce rating despite a 12-month price target that implies about 16% potential upside from current levels.
Over the past year, insider selling has outweighed insider buying by a ratio of more than $451 million to just over $187,000.
But institutional investors are evidently taking a longer-term approach, with buyers injecting $2.34 billion over the past 12 months compared with outflows of just over $487 million.
Still, as previously mentioned, more volatility is likely ahead, as reflected by current short interest of 21% of the float, which equates to $5.45 billion worth of shares.
AI’s Power Crunch Fuels a Pivot for These 2 Oilfield Stocks
By Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 7/16/2026.
Key Points
- SLB and Liberty Energy are forming a strategic alliance to provide modular infrastructure and power generation for data centers.
- Behind-the-meter power could help data center developers move faster when grid interconnection timelines are too long.
- Investors may need to weigh the companies’ AI power opportunity against continued cyclicality in their core oilfield services businesses.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
The physical constraints of artificial intelligence (AI) are no longer limited by silicon or compute capacity. Today, the singular bottleneck slowing global technology expansion is electricity. Hyperscale data centers require staggering amounts of continuous power, and national utility grids lack the infrastructure to deliver gigawatt-scale loads on the timelines technology developers demand. Grid interconnection queues often stretch for years, forcing tech giants to seek immediate alternatives outside the traditional utility framework.
This structural crisis has opened the door for an entirely unexpected sector. Legacy oilfield service providers are aggressively stepping in to fill the capacity gap, repurposing existing fossil fuel hardware to deliver modular natural gas power directly to data center sites. Investors observing this shift are witnessing a rare moment in which heavy industrial assets are becoming the primary enablers of next-generation technology.
Drilling for Data Center Solutions
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Click here to get Jason Bodner's top pick for freeThe July 2026 strategic alliance between SLB (NYSE: SLB) and Liberty Energy (NYSE: LBRT) illustrates this fundamental market shift. By combining modular infrastructure with integrated natural gas power generation, SLB and Liberty Energy are positioning themselves as critical capacity providers for the technology sector. The partnership bridges the gap between compute infrastructure and immediate power generation, creating a potentially durable revenue stream that equity markets have yet to fully digest.
Rather than viewing SLB and Liberty Energy strictly as traditional upstream oilfield operators, market participants should begin evaluating them as essential infrastructure providers for the artificial intelligence ecosystem. This pivot offers a compelling blueprint for how legacy energy expertise can help solve immediate macroeconomic bottlenecks.
Behind-the-Meter Economics Take Charge
To understand the economic gravity of this partnership, investors should examine the mechanics of behind-the-meter power.
Generating electricity behind the meter means producing power on-site, completely independent of the traditional utility transmission grid. For a data center developer, this eliminates multi-year delays waiting for utility lines to be built and approved by local regulators.
SLB brings deep project execution capabilities and prefabricated modular infrastructure to the table. The company has already shipped more than 1.3 gigawatts of infrastructure for data center projects since April 2024. Management expects cumulative global deliveries to exceed two gigawatts by the end of 2026. This is not speculative research and development; it is an active and monetized pipeline.
Liberty Energy steps in to provide the actual power generation systems and intelligent power controls through its Liberty Power Innovations arm. Liberty Energy targets deploying roughly three gigawatts of power projects by 2029.
The underlying margin tailwind for this venture rests on feedstock economics. North America possesses an abundance of structurally cheap natural gas.
Tapping into this localized and inexpensive fuel source to run modular turbines makes the solution offered by SLB and Liberty Energy economically superior to grid-tied utility power while completely bypassing bureaucratic utility timelines.
Mispriced Multiples and Cash Flow Visibility
Despite this strategic pivot toward secular growth, the market continues to misprice energy service companies. Institutional capital largely treats them as cyclical fossil-fuel operators rather than emerging technology infrastructure plays. SLB currently trades near $47, with a market capitalization of roughly $70.13 billion.
SLB operates with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 20.49 and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.13. Backed by solid operating cash flow of $4.65 per share, SLB supports a reliable 2.52% dividend yield. While SLB trades at a premium valuation relative to legacy peers like Baker Hughes (NASDAQ: BKR) and Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), the stock remains heavily tied to international rig counts and Middle East capital expenditures rather than its digital and new energy initiatives.
Liberty Energy presents a more complex valuation puzzle for fundamental investors. Priced near $24.50 with a $4 billion market capitalization, Liberty Energy trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 27.14. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio is heavily distorted at 102.68. This multiple expansion reflects analysts modeling a sharp contraction in forward earnings per share, driven by immediate pricing headwinds in the core North American hydraulic fracturing market.
This valuation distortion creates an asymmetric opportunity. The market is pricing Liberty Energy strictly on the cyclical weakness of its legacy completion services, while largely discounting the high-margin cash flows emerging from its natural gas power generation pipeline. While awaiting broader market recognition, investors are supported by a newly authorized quarterly cash dividend of 9 cents per share, yielding 1.47%.
Seeing Past the Fracking Short Squeeze
Institutional sentiment across both equities reflects this foundational misunderstanding of the evolving business models. SEC filings show a recent pattern of measured insider selling across both boards, including by Liberty Energy's Chief Financial Officer, who divested shares in early July 2026.
Short sellers are heavily targeting Liberty Energy, pushing the short interest ratio to bearish levels. Wall Street analysts remain focused on a 25% year-over-year decline in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization from Q1 2026. That decline was a direct result of the cooling domestic frac spread market, but it ignores the forward-looking growth engine. SLB faces a healthier short interest profile but continues to weather analyst price target reductions tied to global drilling fluctuations rather than its emerging capacity to power data centers.
When institutional capital remains anchored to legacy metrics, observant investors gain a distinct advantage. The broader oilfield services sector is actively rerouting hardware to address technology infrastructure bottlenecks. Once revenue from behind-the-meter data center power eclipses traditional upstream operations, SLB and Liberty Energy will likely experience aggressive multiple expansion as the market correctly categorizes them.
What to Watch as the Grid Transition Scales
The immediate proving ground for this fundamental thesis arrives with the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings reports. Liberty Energy takes the stage on July 22, 2026, followed closely by SLB on July 24, 2026.
Analysts will undoubtedly press management on core legacy operations, but the real value for forward-looking investors lies in the commentary surrounding the new joint venture. Initial contract bookings, projected margins on power generation units, and the speed at which Liberty Energy can scale its three-gigawatt pipeline will determine how quickly institutional investors begin re-rating the stocks.
Investors monitoring the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom might consider adding SLB and Liberty Energy to their watchlists as earnings season approaches. Those comfortable absorbing near-term commodity cyclicality could view the current valuation distortion as an attractive entry point before Wall Street fully prices in the shift from fossil fuel service providers to gigawatt-scale technology vendors.
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