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Special Report

Will the Super Mario Movie Make It Showtime for Nintendo Stock?

By Chris Markoch. First Published: 3/7/2026.

Nintendo Switch console on a desk beside a Nintendo logo display, representing Nintendo’s gaming ecosystem and IP-driven strategy.

Key Points

  • Nintendo sold 15 million Switch 2 consoles in months, but NTDOY stock still needs a catalyst to break resistance.
  • The upcoming Super Mario movie sequel could boost high-margin IP revenue and revive investor sentiment.
  • Strong cash reserves and a dividend provide downside support as investors watch for a technical breakout.
  • Special Report: Elon's "Hidden" Company

Mario and Luigi are two of the most iconic characters in the Nintendo Co. Ltd. (OTCMKTS: NTDOY) universe. The company is hoping the brothers will help it capitalize on their popularity with the upcoming release of the "Super Mario Galaxy Movie," due out in April.

The movie is a sequel to the popular "Super Mario Bros. Movie" that hit theaters in 2023. To the surprise of some, that film was a box-office success and helped lift Nintendo’s intellectual property (IP) sales.

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It's not surprising, then, that Nintendo is counting on the sequel to perform as well as—or better than—the original. The movie's release is scheduled nearly one year to the day after Nintendo released its Switch 2 console.

In its most recent earnings report, the company highlighted cumulative global sell-through of 15 million Switch 2 consoles as of the fourth week of December 2025. That makes it the fastest-selling dedicated video game platform Nintendo has released.

The Year of Super Mario Becomes a Strategic Push

Prior to the movie's release, Nintendo plans to release the "Super Mario Bros. Wonder" game, exclusively for the Switch 2. That's just one of several initiatives the company has lined up for the 40th anniversary of Super Mario Bros.

This fits Nintendo's longer-term strategy of leaning into its IP as a recurring revenue source to help smooth the lumpiness of console sales. IP still represents only a small portion of the company's total revenue: in the first nine months of its 2026 fiscal year, Nintendo reported $54.5 billion in IP-related revenue.

That represented just 3% of the company's overall sales in that period. Still, IP revenue tends to flow directly to the bottom line, making it a valuable complement to hardware sales.

Tariffs, AI and Geopolitical Risks Add Uncertainty

Even before the Switch 2 launched, Nintendo faced headwinds from tariffs. The company has mitigated some of that risk by shifting parts of production to Vietnam.

There have also been concerns about a slowdown in Nintendo's earnings, in part because margins are increasingly affected by volatility in memory-chip prices. Supporting that view, the company reported declining year-over-year operating margins through the first three quarters of its 2026 fiscal year.

On the positive side, the Switch 2, like its predecessor, has a multi-year sales window. Even with strong early demand, a large addressable market remains—one that could get an additional boost when the Super Mario Galaxy Movie opens.

Another longer-term concern is how artificial intelligence (AI) could change the gaming landscape. Some fear that agentic AI tools will enable individuals to self-create games, potentially eroding revenue for traditional publishers.

There will likely be some of that, but many consumers will still prefer polished, professionally developed experiences. That puts Nintendo in a favorable position, especially if it can use AI to accelerate internal development rather than be disrupted by it.

Since the earnings report, the conflict in the Middle East involving the U.S., Israel and Iran has added another risk: potential delays to some Switch 2 shipments that travel by sea.

NTDOY Stock Needs Technical Confirmation

Nintendo stock has been a volatile investment in the past 12 months. The 52-week range for NTDOY is $13.05 to $24.92. The 52-week high coincided with a two-month surge that peaked in mid-August after the June release of the Switch 2. Since then, the NTDOY chart has shown a generally bearish pattern, though it doesn't appear to be a classic "falling knife"—the stock looks like it found a bottom around the earnings report.

Timing a turnaround remains unclear. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has acted as resistance and stalled momentum in early March. Investors would likely want to see a breakout above that level on strong volume to confirm a reversal.

NTDOY stock chart displaying support following earnings.

The best-case scenario for Nintendo is an improving U.S. economy, which would bolster consumer discretionary stocks and could prompt consumers who delayed a Switch 2 purchase to buy. A swift, orderly resolution of geopolitical tensions and continued clarity around tariffs would also strengthen Nintendo's near-term outlook.

Those developments may take a quarter or more to play out. In the meantime, Nintendo pays a steady dividend and holds more than $15 billion in cash on its balance sheet, alongside a market capitalization of roughly $73 billion as of this writing.


 

Special Report

Meta Is Bringing Back Stablecoin Payments—This Time the Conditions Are Different

By Leo Miller. First Published: 3/2/2026.

Meta logo with social platform icons and stablecoin symbols, highlighting META crypto integration focus.

Key Points

  • A new report suggests that Meta is working to bring stablecoins back to its social media empire.
  • With stablecoin adoption and acceptance on the rise, a new stablecoin push likely faces fewer hurdles than Meta's previous attempts.
  • A stablecoin offering could lead to increased engagement on Meta's apps through multiple avenues.
  • Special Report: Elon's "Hidden" Company

For Magnificent Seven giant Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), stablecoin-enabled payments could be returning to its toolkit. Meta launched the Libra stablecoin in 2019, but after less than three years the company had little to show for the effort.

Big-name financial services players such as Mastercard (NYSE: MA) and Visa (NYSE: V) left Meta's "Libra Association," which had been set up to independently govern the cryptocurrency, soon after joining. Meta's "Diem" rebranding failed, and the company ended its stablecoin initiative in early 2022. Still, Meta's interest in stablecoins and the potential benefits they could provide never fully disappeared.

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According to the cryptocurrency publication CoinDesk, Meta plans to launch a stablecoin with a third-party provider in the second half of 2026. The report signals a meaningful strategic shift for the company.

As Stablecoin Acceptance Grows, Meta Sees Opportunity

Stablecoins—cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged to another asset, such as the U.S. dollar—have grown in popularity in recent years. McKinsey & Company highlights this trend in a recent report.

McKinsey estimates that circulating stablecoin supply has increased more than tenfold since 2020, from $30 billion to over $300 billion today, and notes that "public forecasts reflect strong expectations for continued growth."

Importantly, the U.S. government passed the GENIUS Act in mid-2025, creating the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also said stablecoin supply could reach $3 trillion by 2030. Those developments signal improving regulatory clarity—a key issue that hampered Meta's initial push.

Amid rising stablecoin usage and clearer regulations, Meta appears to believe now is the right time to re-enter the space. CoinDesk reports the company has issued product requests to stablecoin providers to pilot a program. That approach would allow Meta to facilitate stablecoin payments without issuing the coin itself. So what potential benefits could stablecoin payments bring to Meta's business?

Stablecoins Could Strengthen Meta's All-Important “Network Effect”

Meta likely has two main objectives with a renewed stablecoin effort. The first relates to the company's significant international revenue. Last quarter, approximately 56% of Meta's revenue came from outside the United States and Canada. That means Meta pays a substantial amount to creators based overseas. Paying those creators in a stablecoin could help overcome common cross-border payment issues, such as high fees and slow wire transfers.

Using a stablecoin, Meta could reduce cross-border transaction costs for both the company and creators. Lowering these costs could provide an incremental benefit to Meta's margins and reinforce the network effect across its social platforms.

More creator content gives Meta's algorithms a larger pool to select from when choosing what to show each user, improving personalization and keeping users engaged. Higher engagement encourages creators to post more as they grow their audiences, which in turn improves recommendations—a virtuous cycle that ultimately increases advertising revenue as users spend more time on Meta's apps.

Stablecoin payments are one lever Meta can use to strengthen that network effect: if foreign creators keep more of what they earn and receive payments faster, they have a stronger incentive to post on Meta's platforms.

Second, a stablecoin could enable more commerce directly within Meta's apps without the friction and fees of traditional banking. That might include seamless purchases after seeing an ad, tipping creators, or creators buying ads with stablecoin. These activities could further boost engagement and create opportunities for transaction-based revenue.

Stablecoins Could Support Meta’s Engagement Flywheel

A new stablecoin offering could lift engagement on Meta's apps, which is central to the health of its advertising business. It's hard to predict precisely how large the benefit would be, but stablecoin adoption and improving sentiment around them make this a sensible time for Meta to dip its toe back into the arena.


 
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