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Special Report D-Wave's Big Deal, Bigger Question: Can Sales Catch Up to the Hype?By Nathan Reiff. Originally Published: 2/2/2026. 
Key Points - D-Wave announced two major contracts worth a combined $30 million in late January, shortly after revealing shelf registrations totaling $330 million.
- The company's revenue doubled year over year in the last reported quarter, but it remains very low in absolute terms.
- One of the contracts, in particular, is for quantum-computing-as-a-service tools and could lead to recurring revenue beyond the initial two-year agreement, a positive sign for D-Wave.
It has been a big year so far for D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS). In January the company closed on its $550 million in cash-and-stock acquisition of Quantum Circuits, substantially expanding D-Wave's capabilities in gate-model quantum technology. While investors may increasingly view D-Wave as a leading quantum computing player with meaningful advantages over competitors, shelf registrations totaling $330 million in the first month of the year may raise alarm bells about further dilution risk. Investors are clearly cautious: QBTS shares have fallen 27% year to date. The Quantum Circuits deal, while promising from a technology standpoint, does not immediately answer a major investor question—how will D-Wave grow sales while narrowing losses or even achieving profitability? 2 Sales Landmarks to Start the Year Jerome Powell says gold is not money. The Fed says inflation is under control and the dollar is strong. But look at what they do. Central banks bought more gold last year than any time since 1967. China dumped $100 billion in U.S. debt, then bought gold. Poland, Hungary, Singapore, and Turkey are all loading up. In 2022, the U.S. froze Russia's money and showed the world that assets can be seized. Now major nations want out. There's only one asset no one can freeze: gold. Get the name and ticker of one stock positioned for this shift. In late January D-Wave tried to ease those concerns by announcing two meaningful contracts. Florida Atlantic University committed to buy and install an Advantage2 annealing system for $20 million, and an unnamed Fortune 100 company signed a two-year quantum-computing-as-a-service (QCaaS) agreement valued at $10 million. These deals represent a clear pickup in sales and are a positive start to the year. D-Wave's revenue growth has been steady but still modest in absolute terms—revenue more than doubled year over year in the third quarter of 2025, but only to $3.7 million. The bigger question is whether this momentum will be enough to convince investors that D-Wave can deliver the sustained sales growth needed to justify the 255% rally over the past year. Concerns About Top- and Bottom-Line Performance Linger Some investors worry less about the count of deals and more about their character. One-off system sales of the Advantage2 can noticeably boost revenue, but they are finite and don't create recurring income. By contrast, the QCaaS agreement—though light on details so far—could be more valuable over time if it leads to renewals, expansions or additional commercial customers using D-Wave's cloud offerings. Even so, stronger sales alone may not be sufficient to move the company to profitability. D-Wave appears to have ambitious expansion plans that will stretch cash reserves and likely require additional capital raises, keeping expenses elevated for the foreseeable future. To date, many Advantage2 buyers have been universities and public-sector organizations; D-Wave has not yet shown broad traction with a large base of corporate clients. Considerations for Investors Given those factors, D-Wave may remain too speculative for many investors. The timetable for quantum computing to play a major, routine role across most businesses and consumers is still uncertain and could be years away. That said, D-Wave's positioning as a dual-focused company—working in both gate-model and annealing technologies—could prove transformational as the industry matures. The company is gaining commercial traction and has posted notable technical achievements over the past year. Valuation is another key consideration. Even after the recent pullback, QBTS has more than tripled over the last year, pushing its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to an eye-popping 888.4. Investors should decide whether the recent dip creates an attractive entry point or whether the stock remains overextended relative to near-term fundamentals. Analysts appear broadly optimistic: 13 of 15 analysts rate D-Wave a Buy, and the consensus Wall Street price target is $38.21—about 88% above the price as of early February 2026. For some investors, that analyst confidence combined with recent high-profile sales may be enough to justify taking a chance that QBTS will resume its upward trajectory.
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