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This Week's Featured Content Amazon Erases a Year of Gains—2 Reasons the Market's WrongAuthor: Sam Quirke. Article Published: 2/16/2026. 
Key Points - Amazon shares are down more than 12% this year and over 20% from November’s all-time high, drifting back toward levels last seen nearly a year ago.
- The stock’s RSI has sunk into the low 20s, marking one of its most oversold readings in almost four years.
- Analyst support remains overwhelmingly bullish, with price targets implying close to 60% upside from current levels.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-2-Format3]
After months of steady pressure that intensified in recent weeks, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) is essentially back to where it was at the start of last March. Not only are shares down more than 12% this year, they’re also more than 20% below November’s all-time high, effectively wiping out the past 12 months of gains. For a company with such strong fundamentals, the stock can’t seem to catch a break. Investors have been rotating out of mega-cap tech, concerns about Amazon’s capital expenditures have risen, and sentiment across the sector has cooled materially. Beneath the surface, however, the current setup looks extreme. Here are two reasons to believe the market may have overreacted. Reason #1: The Stock Is Extremely Oversold The technical picture shows Amazon is deeply oversold. The stock’s relative strength index (RSI) has slipped into the low-20s, its weakest reading in nearly four years. That degree of oversold pressure is uncommon for Amazon, especially given that over the same period the company has consistently delivered strong earnings and reinforced its growth story. Historically, when Amazon’s RSI reaches this kind of technical exhaustion—any reading below 30—it tends to mark temporary lows rather than midpoints in a longer breakdown. For example, a brief dip below 30 in April of last year preceded a rally of roughly 60%, and a similar sub-30 reading in August 2024 was followed by a comparable move. Go back to November 2022 and the rebound was even more dramatic. History doesn’t have to repeat exactly, but it often rhymes, and this is a pattern worth respecting. If shares can stabilize in the coming sessions and the RSI begins to turn back north, that would be an early sign that bullish accumulation is returning. Reason #2: Analysts Are Not Backing Down If the technical case is compelling, analyst support makes the setup even harder to ignore. It’s rare to see such a wide disconnect between what the market is doing to a stock and where analysts think it should be. A slide of this magnitude would normally prompt cascading downgrades as analysts admit they were wrong. Instead, the opposite has occurred. In the past week, teams at Daiwa Securities Group and New Street Research reiterated Buy ratings, and Argus did the same the week before. Bullish price targets stretch as high as $325, which, with the stock trading below $200, implies nearly 60% of potential upside. That kind of asymmetry is difficult to dismiss for one of the leading mega-cap tech companies. Analysts cite accelerating growth at AWS, Amazon’s structural moat in e-commerce, diversified revenue streams, and an expanding advertising business as reasons the long-term thesis remains intact. Watching for the Turn Concerns about increased capital expenditure clearly helped catalyze the recent selloff. But at these levels, much of that fear appears priced in. The pullback has pushed Amazon’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio below 30 for the first time in years, making the valuation materially more attractive than it has been recently. It would be difficult to keep a bullish stance if analysts were abandoning ship; instead, many are largely doubling down. For now, the setup hinges on stabilization. If the stock can hold near current levels and begin carving out a base rather than sliding to fresh lows, the bullish case strengthens quickly. With shares pressing toward a 52-week low, the RSI at multi-year extremes, and analysts calling for as much as 60% upside, the risk/reward profile looks compelling for investors paying attention.
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