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More Reading from MarketBeat Amazon Erases a Year of Gains—2 Reasons the Market's WrongWritten by Sam Quirke. First Published: 2/16/2026. 
Summary - Amazon shares are down more than 12% this year and over 20% from November’s all-time high, drifting back toward levels last seen nearly a year ago.
- The stock’s RSI has sunk into the low 20s, marking one of its most oversold readings in almost four years.
- Analyst support remains overwhelmingly bullish, with price targets implying close to 60% upside from current levels.
After months of steady pressure that intensified in recent weeks, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) has slipped back to where it was at the start of last March. Not only are shares down more than 12% year-to-date, they’re also down more than 20% from November’s all-time high, effectively erasing the past 12 months of gains. For a company with such strong fundamentals, the stock simply can’t seem to catch a break. Investors have rotated out of mega-cap tech, concerns about Amazon’s capital expenditure plans have risen, and sentiment across the sector has cooled materially. But beneath the surface the setup is beginning to look extreme. Here are two reasons the market may have gone too far. Reason #1: The Stock Is Extremely Oversold I Called Black Monday. Now I'm Calling March 26!
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Today, I'll show you how to get in before the big announcement. Click Here to See How to Secure Your "SpaceX Access Code" The technical picture is signaling severe oversold conditions. Amazon’s relative strength index (RSI) has dropped into the low 20s — its lowest reading in nearly four years. That degree of oversold pressure is unusual for this stock, especially given that, over the same period, the company has consistently delivered solid earnings and reinforced its growth story. Historically, when Amazon’s RSI has fallen into this territory — any reading below 30 — it has tended to mark temporary lows rather than the midpoint of a prolonged breakdown. In April of last year, for example, a brief dip below 30 preceded a rally of roughly 60%. In August 2024, another sub-30 reading was followed by a comparable 60% move. Go back to November 2022 and the subsequent rebound was even more dramatic. History doesn’t have to repeat exactly, but it often rhymes, and this pattern is worth respecting. If Amazon shares can stabilize in the coming sessions and the RSI begins turning back north, that would be an early sign that bullish accumulation is underway. Reason #2: Analysts Are Not Backing Down If the technical case is compelling, the analysts’ fundamental support makes the current setup harder to ignore. It’s rare to see such a wide disconnect between what the market is doing to a stock and what analysts expect it to do. A slide of this magnitude would normally trigger a rush of downgrades as analysts reassess their positions. Instead, the opposite has occurred. In the past week, Daiwa Securities Group and New Street Research reiterated Buy ratings, and Argus did the same the week prior. Price targets among the bullish camp stretch as high as $325, which, with the stock trading below $200, implies nearly 60% in potential upside. That level of upside creates a hard-to-ignore asymmetry, particularly for one of the leading mega-cap tech companies. Analysts point to the continued strength of Amazon’s AWS business — where growth is accelerating rather than slowing — along with the company’s e-commerce moat, diversified revenue streams, and expanding advertising footprint. Taken together, the long-term thesis remains intact. Watching for the Turn Concerns about increased capital expenditure clearly catalyzed the recent selloff. But at current prices much of that fear appears priced in. The pullback has pushed Amazon’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio below 30 for the first time in years, making the valuation considerably more attractive than it has been recently. It would be difficult to justify a sustained bullish stance if analysts were abandoning the stock en masse — instead, many are doubling down. For now, the setup hinges on stabilization. If the stock can hold near current levels and begin carving out a base rather than sliding to fresh lows, the bullish case strengthens quickly. With shares approaching a 52-week low, the RSI at multi-year extremes, and analysts forecasting as much as 60% upside, the risk/reward profile looks compelling.
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