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This Week's Featured Content Halliburton Beat Expectations Again—Now the Rebound Trade Gets RealBy Thomas Hughes. First Published: 1/22/2026. 
In Brief - Halliburton’s long correction may be reversing after the company delivered better‑than‑expected Q4 2025 earnings and revenue, outpacing analyst forecasts.
- Despite muted growth expectations for 2026, robust capital returns, strong free cash flow, and international demand support shareholder value and upside potential.
- Analyst sentiment and institutional activity are firming, with a Moderate Buy consensus and rising price targets reflecting improving market confidence.
Halliburton’s (NYSE: HAL) stock has been in a correction for more than 18 months, setting up its next big move — and that movement appears to be beginning. The company’s latest earnings results, while modest on growth, again outperformed expectations. That consistency has enabled robust capital returns and stronger shareholder leverage, and several catalysts are now in place. The oilfield services provider returned to growth unexpectedly in Q4 2025, driven by strengths in key segments, and offered an optimistic outlook for long-term value gains. Growth is not expected to be dramatic in 2026, but Halliburton expects Q4 momentum to continue and new technologies to improve operational performance. The critical takeaway is the company’s commitment to shareholder returns — aggressive buybacks plus a dividend that adds meaningful yield. Jerome Powell says gold is not money. The Fed says inflation is under control and the dollar is strong. But look at what they do. Central banks bought more gold last year than any time since 1967. China dumped $100 billion in U.S. debt, then bought gold. Poland, Hungary, Singapore, and Turkey are all loading up. In 2022, the U.S. froze Russia's money and showed the world that assets can be seized. Now major nations want out. There's only one asset no one can freeze: gold. Get the name and ticker of one stock positioned for this shift. The dividend alone is worth more than 2% with shares trading near the middle of their long-term range. Share repurchases reduced the share count by an average of 1.15% sequentially in Q4, 3.8% year-over-year, and roughly 3.4% for the fiscal year. Given Halliburton’s history and the expected impact of continued buybacks, the company appears well positioned to sustain this pace in 2026 and beyond. For the year, the company returned 85% of its free cash flow, while still improving its balance sheet. Cash, current assets and total assets declined, but debt and liabilities fell as well. Reported equity slipped marginally on a dollar basis, but the reduced share count supports per-share metrics, and leverage remains low with long-term debt at roughly 0.7x equity. Analysts and Institutions Underpin Halliburton’s Stock Price Rebound Analyst price-target resets were a major factor in Halliburton’s 2024/2025 pullback, and the market likely overreacted — setting up an opportunity in 2026. By mid-January, sentiment was firming: coverage and price targets have trended higher, and overall sentiment is improving. The Moderate Buy rating shows a 72% buy-side bias, and the consensus — up slightly from Q4 2025 — sits near long-term highs and above important resistance levels, signaling a shift in market dynamics. 
The institutions own over 85% of this company and its cash-flow-and-capital-return profile. Institutional buyers were net purchasers throughout 2025, buying at a pace near $2 for every $1 sold, and activity increased toward year-end. Early 2025 was lighter by comparison, but the overall trend remained bullish. With catalysts such as persistent core strengths, improving North American demand and a reentry into Venezuela, consensus forecasts may be too conservative — potentially triggering analyst upgrades and a renewed run of outperformance later in the year. Halliburton Outperforms in Q4 2025: Stock Price Extends Uptrend Halliburton delivered a solid Q4. Revenue rose about 0.9%, surprising against expectations for a contraction. The Completion and Production segment posted modest growth, offsetting slight weakness in Drilling and Evaluation, leading to a beat of roughly 460 basis points versus consensus. Regionally, North America revenue declined about 7%, but growth in international markets, notably Mexico and Latin America, offset that weakness. Margins improved meaningfully: operating margin widened, driving an 11% increase in operating income and roughly 2,500 basis points of bottom-line outperformance. The market reacted positively. Pre-market price action rose more than 2.5% to align with analysts' consensus, and if the market follows through, fresh highs could come quickly. In that scenario, HAL could reach the mid-$40s (around $44) relatively soon, potentially setting an eight-year high before mid-2026.
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