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This Month's Featured Story

Are These 3 Leading Defensive Stocks Too Crowded Heading Into 2026?

Submitted by Chris Markoch. Publication Date: 1/1/2026.

A supermarket endcap stacked with bulk household essentials highlights consumer staples demand amid pricing pressures.

Summary

  • Walmart has been the standout defensive winner, but investors are paying a premium for that consistency.
  • Costco’s pullback hasn’t made it “cheap”—it’s still priced for strong execution, even after a down year.
  • Procter & Gamble looks most reasonably valued, but private-label pressure could keep returns muted if growth slows.

When markets get choppy, investors tend to crowd into the same safe places. That often means defensive consumer staples stocks. These companies sell what people need, no matter what's happening in the economy. They're the financial equivalent of comfort food—dependable and familiar.

Even so, while there's evidence of sector rotation, not all defensive stocks have been winners. Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT) has been a clear winner in the defensive trade. WMT is up 23.8%, outpacing the market, but it's trading at a premium—around 39x earnings.

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Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) is down about 5.5% after rallying past $1,000 per share in early summer. It trades near 46x earnings, which is a discount to its historical average.

Then there's Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), off more than 14% as it faces competition from private-label brands. At roughly 21x earnings, PG is trading at a relative discount and may offer the most attractive valuation of the three.

As we head into 2026, the question shifts from "Are these safe?" to "Are they too crowded?" The answer will depend on the economy. Some analysts expect the U.S. economy to accelerate. Others fear a slowdown. And it's possible we simply drift sideways again, as in 2025.

So what happens to these defensive favorites under each outcome? Here's a high-level look at how WMT, COST, and PG could perform if the bulls win, if the bears take over, or if 2026 feels like a repeat of last year.

Scenario #1: The Bulls Kick Into Another Gear

In the best-case scenario, the Fed continues to cut rates, capital expenditures pick up, the One Big Beautiful Bill boosts consumer spending, and job growth improves. Consumer confidence rebounds. In a risk-on market like that, defensive stocks usually don't lead, but they don't vanish either.

Walmart could see stronger traffic and broaden its appeal as a more tech-enabled retailer. Higher consumer confidence could support margins and lift Walmart+ subscriptions.

Costco may continue to shine if shoppers trade up from cheaper alternatives; membership renewals and warehouse traffic often remain strong even in good times. It might not lead the market, but it could grind higher. And if COST climbs back above $1,000, a stock split is possible.

Procter & Gamble is typically a slow-and-steady performer. In a booming economy, PG may lag as investors chase higher-growth names in tech, AI, or energy.

In a strong economy, these stocks can still deliver—just don't expect them to lead. They act more as solid portfolio foundations than growth engines.

Scenario #2: The Bears Have the Last Laugh

Now picture the opposite: inflation creeps back up, job growth stalls, or interest rates stop falling—or even rise again. In that environment, defensive stocks usually see renewed demand.

Walmart could gain market share as shoppers trade down from Target (NYSE: TGT) or Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), a trend the company experienced in 2025.

Costco tends to perform well in slowdowns because bargains and bulk buying become more attractive. But valuations could be a constraint; if investors have already priced in perfection for COST, upside may be limited.

Procter & Gamble would likely deliver stable revenue, though higher input costs and currency headwinds could cap earnings growth.

In a bearish setup, all three names could hold up better than the broader market. Still, "defensive" doesn't guarantee big gains—often it just means losing less.

Scenario #3: The Economy Runs It Back in 2026

If 2026 resembles 2025—uncertain, uneven, and full of mixed signals—the story for defensive stocks comes down to valuation and expectations. They may not crash, but they may not soar either.

Walmart could continue to benefit from a "barbell" consumer: affluent shoppers seeking convenience and budget shoppers hunting for savings.

Costco may keep delivering steady comparable-store sales, with any upside tied to membership fee actions or other special catalysts.

Procter & Gamble will likely rely on modest price increases and efficiency gains to protect margins.

In this middle-ground scenario, these stocks might be "fine." Not thrilling. Not disappointing. But if prices already assume perfection, "fine" can feel like a letdown. That's where investors must decide whether the certainty these companies offer is worth the premium in 2026.


 
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