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After 16% Fall, Analysts Eye a Big Recovery in Meta Platforms
Written by Leo Miller. Published 11/6/2025.
Key Points
- Meta Platforms took a significant hit after its latest earnings report, with shares down over 16% since then.
- However, Wall Street price targets fell much less, indicating a potential opportunity in Meta's shares.
- See why the company's AI capital expenditure plans spooked markets—and spoiler alert—this isn't the first time this has happened.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) just recorded its biggest post-earnings drop in three years.
Shares fell more than 11% on Oct. 30 as investors reacted to the company's Q3 2025 earnings and commentary. That was the largest post-earnings decline the Magnificent Seven stock has seen since Q3 2022.
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Yet based on Wall Street's reaction, you might not realize how sharply the shares dropped.
Analyst sentiment remained surprisingly steady despite the sell-off, suggesting a potential disconnect between short-term market panic and longer-term valuation. Below, we break down how analyst forecasts shifted and what's driving both the fear and the optimism.
Wall Street Analysts Show Confidence in META After Q3 Plunge
Despite the dramatic sell-off, Wall Street analysts largely kept their forecasts intact. MarketBeat's price-target data shows 20 analysts updated their estimates, and among them the average price target fell by only about 5%.
That decline is less than half the actual move Meta shares experienced the day after the report.
The divergence only widened in the days that followed.
Since reporting, Meta shares were down more than 16% as of the Nov. 4 close.
The broader market reacted more negatively than analysts did, which could indicate a potential buying opportunity.
As of Nov. 5, the MarketBeat consensus price target for Meta sits near $827, implying roughly 29% upside. Analysts who issued or updated targets after the company's Q3 release are even more optimistic: their average target is nearly $857, suggesting about 37% upside.
Even the lowest updated target — $770 from Wells Fargo & Company — implies nearly 23% upside. Rosenblatt Securities raised its target to $1,117, the most bullish tracked by MarketBeat, which would indicate potential gains of about 78%.
In short, analysts are largely signaling confidence that Meta shares can recover substantially.
Meta's AI Spending Spree Could Weigh Mightily on FCF in 2026
Meta's spending guidance was a key factor behind the post-earnings sell-off. The company projects capital expenditures (CAPEX) of $71 billion in 2025, up from $39 billion in 2024, and warned CAPEX growth would be "notably larger" in 2026. If that guidance holds, 2026 CAPEX could easily exceed $103 billion.
Meta projects cash from operations of about $127 billion in 2026. If CAPEX reached $103 billion under that scenario, free cash flow (FCF) would be roughly $24 billion — more than 40% below the $42.5 billion in FCF generated over the last 12 months.
Put simply, Meta is planning massive AI-related spending that could materially pressure near-term FCF. That helps explain investor anxiety: the company appears prepared to sacrifice short-term cash generation to position itself for longer-term AI-driven growth.
Despite Fears, Meta Has Shown AI Investing Prowess in the Past
It's worth revisiting Meta's position after Q3 2022. Following that earnings report, shares plunged more than 24% to a low of about $97 per share, amid pressure in its advertising business and a heavy strategic focus on the metaverse.
At the same time, the firm was investing in AI to improve ad targeting and delivery. Analysts lowered ratings and often cited those AI investments as a reason for downgrades.
Meta then went on a dramatic run. As of the Nov. 4 close, the stock trades around $627 — more than 380% above that $97 trough. Early AI investments helped build ad tools that now run at an estimated $60 billion-plus annual revenue run rate, a major contributor to the company's gains. That history doesn't guarantee similar returns over the next few years, but it does show Meta has previously proven skeptics wrong when it doubled down on AI.
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