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Just For You After 16% Fall, Analysts Eye a Big Recovery in Meta PlatformsWritten by Leo Miller. Published 11/6/2025. 
Key Points - Meta Platforms took a significant hit after its latest earnings report, with shares down over 16% since then.
- However, Wall Street price targets fell much less, indicating a potential opportunity in Meta's shares.
- See why the company's AI capital expenditure plans spooked markets—and spoiler alert—this isn't the first time this has happened.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) has just experienced its biggest post-earnings drop in three years. Shares plunged more than 11% on Oct. 30 after the company's Q3 2025 earnings and commentary. That was the largest post-earnings decline for a Magnificent Seven stock since Q3 2022. You don't need fancy software or AI tools to stay ahead — just the right signal before momentum hits. Market Pulse Today tracks a repeating pattern that flashes before select small caps start to move, sending fast, no-fluff alerts with clear breakdowns of why they matter now. Get the next Market Pulse report before it drops in 24 hours Yet Wall Street's reaction painted a different picture. Analyst sentiment remained surprisingly steady despite the sell-off, suggesting a potential disconnect between short-term market panic and longer-term valuation. Below, we break down recent analyst moves and what's driving both the fear and the optimism. Wall Street Analysts Show Confidence in META After Q3 Plunge Relatively speaking, analysts largely stuck to their forecasts even after the sharp drop. MarketBeat's price-target data shows 20 analysts updated their outlooks; collectively, their average price target fell by only about 5%. That decline is less than half the market's immediate drop the day after the report. The gap widened in the days that followed. As of the Nov. 4 close, Meta shares were down more than 16% since the report. Clearly, the market reaction has been harsher than analysts' revisions—an indication that some investors may be overreacting and that an opportunity could be forming. As of Nov. 5, the MarketBeat consensus price target for Meta is nearly $827, implying roughly 29% upside. Analysts who issued or updated targets after the Q3 report are even more optimistic: their average target is about $857, suggesting roughly 37% upside. Even the lowest updated target—$770 from Wells Fargo & Company—implies nearly 23% upside. Rosenblatt Securities was among the few firms that raised its target; Rosenblatt's $1,117 forecast is the most bullish tracked by MarketBeat and implies roughly 78% upside. Put simply, analysts are largely expressing confidence that Meta shares can recover significantly. Meta's AI Spending Spree Could Weigh Mightily on FCF in 2026 Meta's spending outlook was a key reason for the post-earnings sell-off. The company projects capital expenditures (CapEx) of $71 billion in 2025, up from $39 billion in 2024. Management also cautioned that CapEx growth would be "notably larger" in 2026. If that guidance holds, 2026 CapEx could exceed $103 billion. Meta projects cash from operations of about $127 billion in 2026. Even if CapEx reaches only $103 billion, free cash flow (FCF) would be near $24 billion—more than 40% below the $42.5 billion in FCF generated over the last 12 months. In short, Meta intends to invest heavily in AI, which could materially compress FCF next year. Given that trade-off, investor concern about near-term cash generation is understandable: the company appears willing to sacrifice short-term FCF to pursue long-term AI-driven growth. Despite Fears, Meta Has Shown AI Investing Prowess in the Past It's worth recalling Meta's position in Q3 2022. After that earnings report, shares dropped more than 24% to about $97. At the time, the company's ad business was under pressure, and management was heavily focused on the metaverse. Yet the firm was also investing in AI to improve ad targeting and delivery. Analysts cited those investments when downgrading the stock, but the strategy ultimately paid off. Meta shares then went on an impressive run. As of the Nov. 4 close, the stock traded near $627—more than 380% above the $97 low. Early AI investments helped its AI-powered ad tools reach an annual revenue run rate exceeding $60 billion, a major contributor to the rally. That history doesn't guarantee similar gains over the next few years, but it does illustrate that Meta has previously proved skeptics wrong when betting on AI.
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