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Today's Featured Content After 16% Fall, Analysts Eye a Big Recovery in Meta PlatformsWritten by Leo Miller. Published 11/6/2025. 
Key Points - Meta Platforms took a significant hit after its latest earnings report, with shares down over 16% since then.
- However, Wall Street price targets fell much less, indicating a potential opportunity in Meta's shares.
- See why the company's AI capital expenditure plans spooked markets—and spoiler alert—this isn't the first time this has happened.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) recently experienced its largest post-earnings decline in three years. Shares fell more than 11% on Oct. 30 after the company's Q3 2025 earnings and commentary, marking the biggest post-earnings drop for the Magnificent Seven member since Q3 2022. The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It's something we haven't see in America for more than a century. For the full story, click here. But based on Wall Street's response, you might not realize how severe the sell-off was. Analyst sentiment remained surprisingly firm amid the slide, suggesting a possible disconnect between short-term market panic and longer-term analyst valuations. Below, we break down recent analyst updates and what's driving both the fear and the optimism. Wall Street Analysts Show Confidence in META After Q3 Plunge Relative to the stock's dramatic decline, Wall Street analysts largely held their ground. MarketBeat's price-target data shows 20 analysts updated forecasts after the report, and the average price target fell by only about 5%. That decline is less than half the actual drop Meta shares experienced the day after the report. The gap widened in the days that followed. Since the earnings release, Meta shares were down more than 16% as of the Nov. 4 close. In short, the market reacted far more negatively than analysts did — a divergence that could signal a buying opportunity for long-term investors. As of Nov. 5, the MarketBeat consensus price target for Meta is nearly $827, implying roughly 29% upside. Analysts who issued or updated targets after Q3 are even more optimistic: their average target is about $857, suggesting roughly 37% upside. Even the lowest updated target — $770 from Wells Fargo & Company — implies nearly 23% upside. Rosenblatt Securities was one of the few firms to raise its target; Rosenblatt's $1,117 forecast is the most bullish tracked by MarketBeat and implies a potential gain of about 78%. In short, analysts are signaling confidence that Meta shares can recover substantially. Meta's AI Spending Spree Could Weigh Mightily on FCF in 2026 Meta's spending outlook was a key driver of the post-earnings sell-off. The company projects capital expenditures (CAPEX) to rise to $71 billion in 2025, up from $39 billion in 2024, and warned that CAPEX growth would be "notably larger" in 2026. If that guidance holds, 2026 CAPEX could easily exceed $103 billion. Current projections put Meta's cash from operations at about $127 billion in 2026. If CAPEX reaches $103 billion, free cash flow (FCF) would be roughly $24 billion — more than a 40% decline from the $42.5 billion in FCF it generated over the last 12 months. Put simply, Meta plans to spend heavily on AI, which could meaningfully pressure near-term FCF. That trade-off — sacrificing short-term cash generation to position for longer-term AI-driven growth — helps explain investor concern. Despite Fears, Meta Has Shown AI Investing Prowess in the Past It's worth remembering Meta's position after Q3 2022. Following that report, shares plunged more than 24% to around $97, as the company's advertising business came under pressure and management emphasized investments in the metaverse. At the same time, the firm was investing in AI to improve ad targeting and delivery. Analysts cited those AI investments when downgrading the stock. Meta shares then went on an impressive run: as of the Nov. 4 close, the stock traded around $627, more than 380% above that $97 low. Early AI investments helped its ad tools reach an over $60 billion annual revenue run rate — a major contributor to the stock's rally. That history doesn't guarantee similar gains over the next few years, but it does show Meta has, in the past, vindicated long-term investors who backed its AI strategy.
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