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Just For You After 16% Fall, Analysts Eye a Big Recovery in Meta PlatformsWritten by Leo Miller. Published 11/6/2025. 
Key Points - Meta Platforms took a significant hit after its latest earnings report, with shares down over 16% since then.
- However, Wall Street price targets fell much less, indicating a potential opportunity in Meta's shares.
- See why the company's AI capital expenditure plans spooked markets—and spoiler alert—this isn't the first time this has happened.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) just suffered its biggest post-earnings drop in three years. Shares fell more than 11% on Oct. 30 after the company's Q3 2025 earnings and commentary, marking the largest post-earnings move for the Magnificent Seven stock since Q3 2022. Trump's Next Export Ban Could Reshape the Global Economy
It's not semiconductors, AI chips or quantum computers. But none of those technologies can exist without it. On January 19th, 2026, Trump is expected to ban exports of something every tech company desperately needs—forcing them all to relocate to U.S. soil. See what he's about to ban here… Yet Wall Street analysts largely held their ground as the stock plunged. Below, we unpack the shift in analyst forecasts and what's driving both the panic among investors and the continued optimism from analysts. Wall Street Analysts Show Confidence in META After Q3 Plunge Relatively speaking, Wall Street analysts stuck to their forecasts for Meta despite the dramatic sell-off. MarketBeat's price-target data shows 20 analysts updated their forecasts; the average price target fell by only about 5% — less than half the stock's single-day decline. That divergence widened in the days that followed. Since the report, Meta shares were down more than 16% as of the Nov. 4 close, suggesting the market reacted far more negatively than analysts did. That gap could signal a buying opportunity. As of Nov. 5, the MarketBeat consensus price target for Meta is nearly $827, implying substantial upside. Analysts who issued or updated targets after the company's Q3 report are even more optimistic: their average target is roughly $857, suggesting about 37% upside. Even the lowest updated target — $770 from Wells Fargo & Company — implies roughly 23% upside. Rosenblatt Securities was among the few that raised their target; their $1,117 forecast is the most bullish tracked by MarketBeat and implies a potential gain of about 78%. In short, analysts are showing confidence that Meta shares could stage a significant recovery. Meta's AI Spending Spree Could Weigh Mightily on FCF in 2026 Meta's spending outlook was a major factor behind the post-earnings sell-off. The company projects capital expenditures (CAPEX) of $71 billion in 2025, up from $39 billion in 2024, and warned CAPEX growth will be "notably larger" in 2026. If that guidance holds, 2026 CAPEX could easily exceed $103 billion. Projections for 2026 put Meta's cash from operations at about $127 billion. If CAPEX reaches $103 billion, free cash flow (FCF) would be roughly $24 billion — more than 40% below the $42.5 billion in FCF generated over the last 12 months. Put simply, Meta's planned heavy AI investment could materially pressure FCF next year. That helps explain investor alarm: the company appears willing to sacrifice near-term FCF to position itself for long-term, AI-driven growth. Despite Fears, Meta Has Shown AI Investing Prowess in the Past It's worth revisiting Meta's post-Q3 2022 experience. After that earnings report, shares plunged more than 24% to about $97 as the advertising business came under pressure and management prioritized the metaverse. At the same time, the company was investing in AI to improve ad targeting and delivery. Analysts cited those AI investments as a reason for downgrades and short-term pessimism. Meta shares then went on an impressive run. As of the Nov. 4 close, shares traded around $627 — more than a 380% gain from that $97 low. Early AI investments helped its AI-powered ad tools reach an annual revenue run rate above $60 billion, a major contributor to its performance. This history doesn't guarantee similar outsized gains over the next few years, but it does show Meta has proven doubters wrong before when it doubled down on AI.
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