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Tuesday's Featured Content After 16% Fall, Analysts Eye a Big Recovery in Meta PlatformsWritten by Leo Miller. Published 11/6/2025. 
Key Points - Meta Platforms took a significant hit after its latest earnings report, with shares down over 16% since then.
- However, Wall Street price targets fell much less, indicating a potential opportunity in Meta's shares.
- See why the company's AI capital expenditure plans spooked markets—and spoiler alert—this isn't the first time this has happened.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) has just experienced its biggest post-earnings drop in three years. Shares fell more than 11% on Oct. 30 after investors digested the company's Q3 2025 earnings and commentary. That marked the largest post-earnings decline for the Magnificent Seven stock since Q3 2022. A free report revealing the 7 key indicators that have predicted every major economic collapse since 1929.
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These aren't the signals you'll see on CNBC. Claim Your Free Report Now » Yet, looking at Wall Street's reaction, the sell-off may appear out of step with analyst sentiment. Analysts largely held their forecasts as the stock tumbled, suggesting a potential disconnect between short-term market panic and longer-term valuation judgments. Below, we break down shifts in analyst forecasts and examine the drivers behind both the fear and the optimism. Wall Street Analysts Show Confidence in META After Q3 Plunge Relatively speaking, Wall Street analysts stuck to their forecasts despite the dramatic sell-off. MarketBeat's price-target data shows 20 analysts updated their forecasts, and the average price target moved down by only 5%. That's less than half the decline Meta shares experienced the day after the report. The gap widened in the days that followed: as of the Nov. 4 close, Meta shares were down more than 16% since the report. The market reaction was clearly more negative than analysts' revisions, which could signal a potential buying opportunity. As of Nov. 5, the MarketBeat consensus price target for Meta is nearly $827, implying roughly 29% upside. Analysts who issued or updated targets after the Q3 report are even more optimistic, with an average updated target near $857 — about 37% upside. Even the lowest updated target of $770, from Wells Fargo & Company, implies almost 23% upside. Rosenblatt Securities was among the few firms to raise its target; their $1,117 price target is the most bullish tracked by MarketBeat and implies potential gains of about 78%. In short, analysts are signaling confidence that Meta shares could recover substantially. Meta's AI Spending Spree Could Weigh Mightily on FCF in 2026 Meta's spending outlook was a key driver of the post-earnings sell-off. The company projects capital expenditures (CAPEX) of $71 billion in 2025, up from $39 billion in 2024, and warned CAPEX growth would be "notably larger" in 2026. If that guidance holds, 2026 CAPEX could exceed $103 billion. Projections for 2026 indicate cash from operations of about $127 billion. If CAPEX reaches $103 billion, free cash flow (FCF) would be around $24 billion — more than 40% below the $42.5 billion in FCF generated over the last 12 months. In short, Meta plans to spend heavily on AI, which could exert significant pressure on FCF next year. That trade-off — sacrificing near-term FCF to position for AI-driven growth — helps explain investor unease. Despite Fears, Meta Has Shown AI Investing Prowess in the Past It's worth revisiting Q3 2022. After that earnings report, shares plunged over 24% to about $97 amid pressure on the company's advertising business and management's focus on the metaverse. Even then, Meta was investing in AI to improve ad targeting and delivery, and analysts pointed to those investments when downgrading the stock (coverage from the time). Meta then went on an impressive run: as of the Nov. 4 close, the stock trades near $627, up more than 380% from that $97 low. Early AI investments helped drive ad tools to an annual revenue run rate exceeding $60 billion — a major contributor to the company's recovery. That history doesn't guarantee similar gains over the next few years, but it does show Meta has a track record of turning heavy AI investment into meaningful revenue gains.
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