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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media After 16% Fall, Analysts Eye a Big Recovery in Meta PlatformsWritten by Leo Miller. Published 11/6/2025. 
Key Points - Meta Platforms took a significant hit after its latest earnings report, with shares down over 16% since then.
- However, Wall Street price targets fell much less, indicating a potential opportunity in Meta's shares.
- See why the company's AI capital expenditure plans spooked markets—and spoiler alert—this isn't the first time this has happened.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) just experienced its biggest post-earnings drop in three years. Shares tumbled more than 11% on Oct. 30 after the company's Q3 2025 earnings and commentary. That was the largest single-day decline for the Magnificent Seven stock following an earnings report since Q3 2022. Porter Stansberry says the monetary reset he warned about more than a decade ago is now entering its most dangerous phase — and that gold is about to play its biggest role in U.S. portfolios in half a century. He's joined by top metals analyst Garrett Goggin to reveal why central banks are dumping Treasurys for gold, how new legislation could disrupt the banking system within weeks, and the little-known company they believe is positioned to benefit as this shift accelerates. Click here to see Porter and Garrett's full briefing on the coming monetary reset But Wall Street's reaction painted a different picture. Analyst sentiment remained surprisingly steady despite the sell-off, suggesting a disconnect between the market panic and longer-term valuation. Below, we break down how analyst forecasts shifted and what's driving both the fear and the optimism. Wall Street Analysts Show Confidence in META After Q3 Plunge Relatively speaking, analysts largely stuck to their forecasts even after the dramatic move. MarketBeat's price-target data shows that 20 analysts updated their models; among them, the average price target fell by only about 5%. That decline is less than half the one-day drop Meta shares posted after the report. And the divergence has grown. As of the Nov. 4 close, Meta shares were down more than 16% since the report—far more than analysts' average reductions. The gap between the market's reaction and analysts' expectations suggests there may be an opportunity for patient investors. As of Nov. 5, the MarketBeat consensus price target for Meta is roughly $827, implying about 29% upside. Analysts who updated targets after the Q3 report show even more optimism: their average target is near $857, implying roughly 37% upside. Even the most conservative updated target—$770 from Wells Fargo & Company—implies nearly 23% upside. Rosenblatt Securities was one of the few to raise its target; its $1,117 forecast is the most bullish tracked by MarketBeat and implies a potential 78% gain. In short, analysts generally appear confident Meta can stage a significant recovery. Meta's AI Spending Spree Could Weigh Heavily on FCF in 2026 Meta's spending outlook was a major driver of the post-earnings sell-off. The company guided for capital expenditures (CAPEX) of $71 billion in 2025, up from $39 billion in 2024, and warned that CAPEX growth would be "notably larger" in 2026. If management's guidance holds, 2026 CAPEX could exceed $103 billion. Consensus forecasts currently project cash from operations of about $127 billion in 2026. If CAPEX reached $103 billion, free cash flow (FCF) would be roughly $24 billion—more than 40% below the $42.5 billion in FCF Meta generated over the last 12 months. Put simply, Meta plans to spend aggressively on AI, which could materially pressure near-term FCF. That prospect understandably unsettled investors, since the company appears willing to sacrifice short-term cash generation to pursue long-term, AI-driven growth. Despite Fears, Meta Has Demonstrated Returns from AI Investment Before It's worth recalling Meta's position after Q3 2022. Following that earnings release, the stock plunged more than 24% to about $97 as its advertising business faced headwinds and leadership emphasized the metaverse. At the same time, Meta was investing in AI to improve ad targeting and delivery. Analysts cited those investments when downgrading the stock at the time. The company's AI investments later paid off. As of the Nov. 4 close, Meta traded around $627—more than a 380% increase from $97—driven in part by AI-powered ad tools that now contribute an estimated $60 billion-plus in annual revenue run rate. That past performance doesn't guarantee similar gains over the next three years, but it does illustrate that Meta has, historically, turned heavy AI investment into significant commercial progress.
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