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Today's Featured News After 16% Fall, Analysts Eye a Big Recovery in Meta PlatformsWritten by Leo Miller. Published 11/6/2025. 
Key Points - Meta Platforms took a significant hit after its latest earnings report, with shares down over 16% since then.
- However, Wall Street price targets fell much less, indicating a potential opportunity in Meta's shares.
- See why the company's AI capital expenditure plans spooked markets—and spoiler alert—this isn't the first time this has happened.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) just saw its biggest post-earnings fall in three years. Shares dropped by over 11% on Oct. 30 as investors reacted to the company's Q3 2025 earnings and commentary. This was the largest down move the Magnificent Seven stock has experienced after an earnings report since Q3 2022. Yet Wall Street's reaction painted a different picture. Analyst sentiment remained surprisingly firm even as the stock plunged, suggesting a potential disconnect between short-term market panic and longer-term valuation. Below, we break down shifts in analyst forecasts and examine what's driving both the fear and the optimism. Wall Street Analysts Show Confidence in META After Q3 Plunge Relatively speaking, analysts largely stuck to their forecasts despite the sell-off. MarketBeat's price-target data shows 20 analysts updated their estimates, and the average price target fell by only about 5%. That decline is less than half the actual one-day drop Meta shares experienced after the report. The divergence widened in the days that followed. Since reporting, Meta shares were down more than 16% as of the Nov. 4 close. Put simply, the market reacted far more negatively to the results than many analysts did — a potential signal that an opportunity could be forming. As of Nov. 5, the MarketBeat consensus price target on Meta stood at nearly $827, implying roughly 29% upside. Analysts who issued or updated targets after the company's Q3 report are even more optimistic: among those, the average target is about $857, suggesting roughly 37% upside. Even the lowest updated target — $770 from Wells Fargo & Company — implies nearly 23% upside. Rosenblatt Securities was one of the few firms that raised its target; its $1,117 forecast tracked by MarketBeat is the most bullish and implies potential gains of about 78%. Analysts, in short, are expressing confidence that Meta can recover substantially. Meta's AI Spending Spree Could Weigh Mightily on FCF in 2026 Meta's spending outlook was central to the stock's post-earnings drop. The company projects capital expenditures (CAPEX) of $71 billion in 2025, up from $39 billion in 2024, and warned that CAPEX growth would be "notably larger" in 2026. If management's guidance holds, 2026 CAPEX could easily exceed $103 billion. Analyst projections put Meta's cash from operations at about $127 billion in 2026. Even if CAPEX reaches only $103 billion, that would leave free cash flow (FCF) near $24 billion — more than 40% below the $42.5 billion in FCF the company generated over the last 12 months. In short, Meta is signaling heavy AI investments that could materially compress FCF next year. It's understandable that investors are alarmed: the company appears willing to sacrifice near-term cash generation to position itself for longer-term, AI-driven growth. Despite Fears, Meta Has Shown AI Investing Prowess in the Past It's worth recalling Meta's position in Q3 2022. After that earnings report, shares plunged more than 24% to about $97 as the company's advertising business came under pressure and management shifted focus to the metaverse. At the same time, Meta was investing in AI to improve ad targeting and delivery. Analysts cut ratings and cited AI spending as a justification for their concerns. Shares subsequently went on an impressive run. As of the Nov. 4 close, Meta traded around $627 — more than 380% above that $97 low. Early AI investments helped its ad tools reach an annual revenue run rate north of $60 billion, a major contributor to the company's gains. This isn't to suggest Meta will replicate those returns over the next three years, but it does illustrate that the company has, historically, turned heavy AI investment into meaningful business and shareholder value.
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