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Additional Reading from MarketBeat After 16% Fall, Analysts Eye a Big Recovery in Meta PlatformsWritten by Leo Miller. Published 11/6/2025. 
Key Points - Meta Platforms took a significant hit after its latest earnings report, with shares down over 16% since then.
- However, Wall Street price targets fell much less, indicating a potential opportunity in Meta's shares.
- See why the company's AI capital expenditure plans spooked markets—and spoiler alert—this isn't the first time this has happened.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) just saw its biggest post-earnings fall in three years. Shares dropped by over 11% on Oct. 30 as investors reacted to the company's Q3 2025 earnings and commentary. This was the largest post-earnings decline the Magnificent Seven stock has experienced since Q3 2022. A free report revealing the 7 key indicators that have predicted every major economic collapse since 1929.
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These aren't the signals you'll see on CNBC. Claim Your Free Report Now » Yet Wall Street's reaction told a different story. Analyst sentiment held surprisingly firm as the stock tumbled, suggesting a possible disconnect between short-term market panic and long-term valuation. Below, we break down the shift in analyst forecasts and examine what's driving both the fear and the optimism. Wall Street Analysts Show Confidence in META After Q3 Plunge Relative to the share-price move, Wall Street analysts largely stuck to their forecasts. MarketBeat's price-target data shows 20 analysts updated their forecasts, and the average price target fell by only about 5%. That's less than half the actual drop Meta shares saw the day after the report. The divergence widened in the days that followed. As of the Nov. 4 close, Meta shares were down more than 16% since the report. The market reacted far more negatively than analysts did — which could signal a buying opportunity in Meta shares. As of Nov. 5, the MarketBeat consensus price target on Meta stands at nearly $827, implying roughly 29% upside. Analysts who issued or updated their targets after the Q3 earnings are even more optimistic: their average target is nearly $857, implying about 37% upside. Even the lowest updated target of $770 (from Wells Fargo & Company) implies nearly 23% upside. Rosenblatt Securities was one of the few firms that raised its Meta target — their $1,117 forecast is the most bullish tracked by MarketBeat and implies potential upside of about 78%. In short, analysts are generally confident Meta shares will recover materially. Meta's AI Spending Spree Could Weigh Mightily on FCF in 2026 Meta's spending guidance was a key reason for the post-earnings sell-off. The company projects capital expenditures (CAPEX) to rise to $71 billion in 2025, up from $39 billion in 2024, and warned CAPEX growth would be "notably larger" in 2026. If that guidance holds, 2026 CAPEX could exceed $103 billion. With projected cash from operations of $127 billion in 2026, CAPEX of $103 billion would leave free cash flow (FCF) near $24 billion — more than 40% below the $42.5 billion in FCF the company generated over the trailing 12 months ($42.5 billion). Meta is signaling it will spend heavily on AI, which could meaningfully pressure FCF next year. That helps explain investor concern: the company appears willing to sacrifice near-term cash generation to position itself for long-term, AI-driven growth. Despite Fears, Meta Has Shown AI Investing Prowess in the Past It's worth revisiting Meta's position after Q3 2022. Following that report, shares plunged more than 24% to about $97 as the company's advertising business came under pressure and management pursued ambitious metaverse initiatives. At the same time, the firm was investing in AI to improve ad targeting and delivery. Analysts cited those AI investments when downgrading the stock (report). Meta shares then went on an impressive run. As of the Nov. 4 close, the stock traded around $627 — more than a 380% gain from $97. Early AI investments helped its ad tools reach an annual revenue run rate exceeding $60 billion, a major contributor to the rally. That doesn't mean similar returns are likely over the next three years, but it does show Meta has proved doubters wrong before when betting on AI.
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