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After 16% Fall, Analysts Eye a Big Recovery in Meta Platforms
Written by Leo Miller. Published 11/4/2025.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) just suffered its biggest post-earnings drop in three years. Shares fell more than 11% on Oct. 30 as investors reacted to the company's Q3 2025 earnings and commentary. That was the largest single-session decline the Magnificent Seven member has seen after an earnings report since Q3 2022.
Yet Wall Street analysts' reactions were far more muted. Below, we examine how analyst price targets shifted after the report and highlight the key aspects of Meta's spending plans that rattled markets.
Wall Street Analysts Remain Relatively Confident After Q3 Plunge
Despite the dramatic sell-off, analysts largely held their forecasts steady. MarketBeat has price-target data from just under 20 analysts who updated their estimates after the earnings release. Among that group, the average price target fell by only about 5%.
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Key Points
- Meta Platforms took a huge hit after its latest earnings report. Shares are down over 16% since.
- However, Wall Street price targets fell much less, indicating a potential opportunity in Meta's shares.
- See why the company's AI capital expenditure plans spooked markets. It isn't the first time this has happened.
That decline is less than half the single-day drop, and the divergence widened in the days that followed. By the Nov. 4 close, Meta shares were down more than 16% since the report — a much stronger market reaction than analysts' price-target moves suggest. That gap could point to a potential opportunity for investors.
As of Nov. 4, the MarketBeat consensus price target for Meta is roughly $828, implying about 32% upside from current levels. Analysts who issued or updated targets after the Q3 report are even more optimistic: their average target is nearly $857, suggesting roughly 37% upside.
The lowest updated target tracked by MarketBeat is $770 from Wells Fargo & Company, implying about 23% upside. Rosenblatt Securities was among the few firms that raised its target — its $1,117 forecast is the most bullish in our data and implies a potential gain of about 78%. In short, many analysts still expect a sizable recovery in Meta shares.
Meta's AI Spending Could Put Pressure on Free Cash Flow in 2026
Meta's spending guidance was a major factor behind the stock's decline. The company said it expects capital expenditure (CapEx) dollar growth to be "notably larger in 2026 than 2025." At the midpoint, Meta expects to spend $71 billion on CapEx in 2025, which represents roughly a $32 billion increase from the approximately $39 billion it spent in 2024 (source).
If CapEx growth is "notably larger" again in 2026, total CapEx could exceed $103 billion. With projections for cash from operations of about $127 billion in 2026, that level of spending would leave free cash flow near $24 billion — more than 40% below the $42.5 billion in free cash flow Meta generated over the trailing 12 months (source).
Put simply, Meta is signaling it will spend heavily on AI, which could materially pressure free cash flow next year. It's understandable that investors are concerned, as the company appears willing to sacrifice near-term cash generation to position itself for longer-term AI-driven growth.
History Suggests Meta's AI Investments Can Pay Off
It's useful to recall Meta's position after Q3 2022. Following that report, shares plunged more than 24% to about $97 amid advertising weakness and a heavy focus on the metaverse. Still, the company was investing in AI to improve ad targeting and delivery, and some analysts cited those investments when downgrading the stock (coverage at the time).
Meta then went on an impressive run. As of the Nov. 4 close, the stock traded around $627 — more than a 380% gain from that $97 low. Early AI investments helped its ad tools reach an annual revenue run rate exceeding $60 billion, a major contributor to the rally (source). That history doesn't guarantee similar gains over the next few years, but it does show Meta has a track record of turning AI investment into meaningful business upside.
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