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Alphabet: After Its Best Quarter in Decades, Is It Time to Buy?
Written by Ryan Hasson. Published 10/3/2025.
Key Points
- Alphabet posted a 38% surge in Q3, its best performance since 2005, driven by a favorable court ruling and notable beats in its Q2 earnings report.
- Solid AI adoption, double-digit revenue growth, and a favorable DOJ ruling reinforced confidence in its business model.
- Shares are trading at a P/E of 26, near historical averages, with $240 as key support and $250 as the breakout level to watch going forward.
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has staged a remarkable comeback.
After lagging the market in the first half of the year—facing competitive threats in artificial intelligence (AI), pressure on its advertising stronghold, challenges to Google Search, and ongoing regulatory headwinds—the tech giant just posted its strongest quarter in nearly two decades in stock performance.
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Everyday citizens lost a sizable amount of their hard earned wealth at the stroke of FDR's pen.
The surge has shifted investor sentiment sharply, putting Alphabet back at the center of the big-tech conversation.
The question now: after such a rally, is it still time to buy, or has the easy money already been made?
A Historic Quarter
In the third quarter of 2025, Alphabet delivered a staggering 38% gain, its best return since Q2 2005. For a mega-cap stock approaching a $3 trillion market cap, that performance is rare and hard to ignore. Investors who bought while Alphabet was under pressure—with fundamentals intact but valuation below historical averages—have been well rewarded. For those on the sidelines, the dilemma is whether this renewed strength still offers meaningful upside.
Why Q2 Results Fueled the Rally
Alphabet's rebound wasn't accidental. It was driven by strong fundamentals in the company's Q2 2025 earnings, reported on July 23. Revenue rose 14% year-over-year to $96.43 billion, beating estimates of $94 billion. Earnings per share climbed 22% to $2.31, above the $2.17 consensus.
The strength was broad-based, but two growth engines stood out: Google Cloud and YouTube. Cloud revenue increased 32% to $13.62 billion, and the segment surpassed the $50 billion mark in annual recurring revenue. YouTube's ad revenue rose 13% to $9.79 billion, reaffirming its position as the dominant online video platform.
The most critical result, however, was Google Search. Long seen as vulnerable to disruption from AI chatbots, search revenue instead grew 11.7%, well above analyst expectations of 8%. That performance eased concerns about a structural decline and suggested AI might enhance, rather than erode, Alphabet's core business.
Adding to the bullish narrative, Alphabet received a major regulatory break. A U.S. court decision in the Department of Justice's antitrust case against Google stopped short of the harshest remedies—such as breaking up Chrome or forcing divestitures. That outcome removed a long-standing overhang and further fueled the rally.
Valuation: Not Cheap, But Reasonable
Alphabet's fundamentals are strong again, but valuation is no longer at bargain levels. With a trailing P/E around 26, the stock trades slightly below its 10-year average of 28. Its forward P/E is elevated, but still reasonable compared with peers in the computer and technology sector.
Year-to-date, shares have increased by nearly 30%. While some may worry about chasing strength, the company continues to post double-digit revenue growth, bolster its cloud and AI positioning, and maintain dominance in advertising. In that light, the rally may not be overextended.
Technicals: $240 Is the Key Level
From a technical perspective, Alphabet is consolidating after its explosive Q3 run. Shares recently pulled back from about $255 to $240, where they've found firm support. This level now represents the key line in the sand.
If GOOGL can hold $240 and push above $250, it would confirm a higher low and signal the potential start of a new leg higher. Conversely, a decisive break below $240 could indicate a near-term shift in momentum. With Q3 earnings due in November, volatility is likely — as is the potential for upside if the company extends its streak of strong results.
GOOGL Is Still Worth Watching Closely
Alphabet's transformation from laggard to leader has been swift and decisive. Strong Q2 results, regulatory relief, and AI-driven momentum helped power its record-breaking Q3 rally. Valuation is no longer cheap, but it remains reasonable for a company with Alphabet's growth, profitability, and market dominance.
For long-term investors, pullbacks near $240 could be attractive entry points. For traders, a breakout above $250 may signal the next wave of momentum. Either way, Alphabet's comeback has reaffirmed its place at the top of the tech hierarchy, and investors should keep it on their radar.
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