Ticker Reports for September 26th
Copper Giant Freeport Slumps but Analysts See 33% Upside
Rare earth metal and gold mining stocks have been all the rage recently. However, some investors may not be aware that companies producing another key resource have also performed very well. That resource is copper, the industrial metal used in everything from renewable energy facilities to semiconductor manufacturing.
Over the past five years, copper giants like Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) and Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO) have seen their share prices surge. As of the September 25 close, these stocks have provided total returns of approximately 144% and 246%, respectively. That significantly beats the S&P 500’s approximately 118% return in that time.
However, shares of Freeport McMoRan recently took a huge hit. Overall, the stock fell a combined 22% on September 24 and September 25. Below, we’ll break down what’s been driving the soaring prices of copper producers and provide an outlook on the industry. We’ll also detail the recent event that caused Freeport shares to tank. Freeport now looks like a solid value play for investors willing to take a long-term perspective.
All data is as of the September 25 close unless otherwise stated.
Copper: Surging Prices Have a Strong Chance to Continue
The price of copper has risen around 58% over the past five years, a huge contributor to the gains seen in copper producers. Increased demand and limited supply have driven this. Many expect copper prices to keep rising in the years to come, due to several factors.
That includes the increased need for electrical transmission as power grids expand in developed and developing economies. The increasing prevalence of electric vehicles (EVs) is also key.
EVs require three to four times as much copper as gas-powered vehicles.
University of Michigan and Cornell University researchers suggest that copper prices must double well before 2050 to meet demand. That forecast specifically pertains to maintaining historical demand trends. It doesn’t include possible aggressive EV and renewable energy policies, which could increase prices.
This supports a bullish outlook for current copper miners, such as Freeport.
Freeport’s Tragedy Sends Shares Plummeting
On September 9, Freeport announced that a mudslide occurred at its Grasberg Block Cave underground mine in Indonesia. The company halted operations at the mine to search for seven missing mining team members trapped there.
Tragically, the company later discovered that two mining team members had died as a result, and five others remain missing. The company also provided key financial updates concerning this event on September 24.
In Q3, the company expects copper sales to be 4% lower than past estimates and gold sales to be 6% lower. It also sees a significant reduction in planned production for the rest of 2025 and 2026.
Specifically, for 2026, the company says its Indonesian production could be 35% lower than pre-incident estimates. Production could potentially return to pre-incident levels by 2027.
With such a large decrease in production estimates at one of the firm's most important mines, the markets sold off the stock significantly.
Still, the Grasberg incident is a key case of how long-term investors can benefit from short-term disruptions. Freeport could return to pre-incident production levels in two years or less, making its long-term outlook similar.
However, the stock is now trading at a significantly lower price. Thus, taking advantage of this creates an opportunity to achieve outsized gains in Freeport shares. Looking at industry valuation data confirms this.
Freeport Trades Well Below Peers, Analysts Eye +30% Upside
Freeport trades at a forward enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 5.8x. This metric helps compare companies with different capital structures and profitability levels.
The average forward EV/EBITDA ratio among 13 large-cap copper mining stocks is 9.5x. This indicates that Freeport is now significantly undervalued compared to its peers.
Notably, the MarketBeat consensus price target on Freeport now sits at $47, implying 33% upside in shares. Among analysts who updated their forecasts on Sept. 24 and 25, the average target is only slightly lower at $46.
Additionally, Wall Street price targets tend to look 12 months out, when Freeport will still be highly affected by the Grasberg incident. Thus, the longer-term opportunity for Freeport shares looks significantly larger than these forecasts imply.
Still, investors should note that the stock could continue facing near-term pressure with sentiment down.
Strange crypto pattern discovered by 40-person research team
Strange crypto pattern discovered by 40-person research team
The BYD Opportunity: Tesla-Like Growth at a Fraction of the Price
Within the electric vehicle (EV) landscape, two companies stand head and shoulders above the rest. Elon Musk’s Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) needs little introduction; the company is the dominant EV player in the U.S. and is one of the world’s top ten most valuable stocks. However, on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, Chinese automaker BYD (OTCMKTS: BYDDY) has become a huge force in its own right. It is the world's third most valuable automotive stock and is one of only three EV companies that have achieved profitability.
Tesla and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) are the other two. However, Li’s $20 billion in the last 12 months (LTM) sales pale compared to the $92 billion and $118 billion in revenue Tesla and BYD generated, respectively. This positions the companies in a league of their own.
With this dynamic established, let’s get down to the fundamental question investors should ask: Is BYD a stock worth considering?
Tesla vs. BYD: Similar Financials, Stark Valuation Differences
Looking at Tesla and BYD's valuations in relation to their sales provides an important starting point for analyzing BYD. Year-to-date, Tesla's market capitalization is approximately $1.4 trillion, while BYD's stands at $130 billion—less than one-tenth of Tesla's value.
However, as stated above, BYD generated $118 billion in LTM sales, around $26 billion more than Tesla.
This difference signals a significant dislocation in value between the two companies right off the bat. However, for the sake of argument, let’s exclude BYD’s mobile handset business, isolating its automotive business.
Even then, BYD’s automotive revenue of $96 billion exceeds Tesla’s $92 billion LTM revenue. This supports a bullish case for BYD versus Tesla, with the firm having higher revenues but a fraction of its market cap.
Tesla and BYD are also fairly similar when it comes to profitability. In the first half of 2025, BYD’s gross margin in its automotive business was approximately 20%.
That’s moderately higher than Tesla's 18% automotive gross margin over the same period. BYD also had an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin of around 15.5%.
That’s very similar to the 14.8% adjusted EBITDA margin Tesla saw.
BYD’s automotive net income in H1 2025 was $1.4 billion for a net income margin of 4.2%. Meanwhile, Tesla was moderately more profitable, achieving non-adjusted net income of around $1.6 billion for a margin of 5.2%.
With all these numbers being so close together, it isn't easy to reconcile why Tesla’s valuation is so much higher than BYD's. However, BYD is facing a key problem that may worry investors.
Chinese Government Influence Complicates BYD’s Outlook
Much of BYD’s rise results from Chinese EV subsidies, which have caused overproduction and oversupply in China. This has led companies to slash prices to attract consumers.
Price wars and the Chinese government's attempt to limit them contributed to BYD’s net profit falling 30% last quarter. Despite this, the company’s profit in the first half of the year is still up 14%.
On the other hand, things are going well for BYD outside of China. The company’s international revenue increased by 50% in H1 2025.
In April, the company also outpaced Tesla in EV registrations for the first time ever. BYD extended its gains on Tesla significantly in July.
Despite this, China continues to be the company's most vital market, representing approximately 73% of automotive revenue. This situation adds complexity when evaluating an investment in the stock. Although China is the largest EV market globally, substantial government intervention creates uncertainty about future developments.
Buffett Sells BYD, But the Stock’s Valuation Is Hard to Ignore
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway recently completely sold out of its stake in BYD. However, the company has been selling its stake in BYD at a fairly routine pace since Q4 2022 while achieving a massive return on the stock.
This makes it difficult to say that recent events caused the firm to hit the panic button.
Overall, it seems clear that BYD is trading at a depressed valuation compared to Tesla. Even if the stock doubled in price, it still wouldn’t be near Tesla’s market cap. This, combined with BYD’s international strength, sets up a favorable risk-reward opportunity in the stock.
This is the "End of Tesla" as we know it…
This is the "End of Tesla" as we know it…
3 Reasons CoreWeave Could Be the Hottest AI Stock in Q4
Shares of CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV) opened Thursday just under $128, aiming to add to the more than 50% in gains they’ve logged since the start of September. That kind of move would be considered impressive for most companies, but for CoreWeave, it feels like only the beginning.
Since going public just before the summer, the artificial intelligence (AI) cloud specialist had already rallied more than 350% by the middle of June, before it collapsed through August on the back of weak earnings.
Now, though, the stock looks to be finding its legs again, and there are several reasons to think it could be gearing up for another major run into the year-end. Here are three of the best.
Reason #1: Ties to OpenAI and NVIDIA
A powerful tailwind has emerged in recent weeks with CoreWeave’s partnerships among AI’s biggest players. On Thursday this week, the company revealed an expansion of its contract with OpenAI by up to $6.5 billion, pushing shares higher in that session’s early trading.
The deal reinforces a critical relationship and locks in recurring revenue visibility for a company still in its early public life.
The fact that OpenAI, arguably the most influential AI customer in the world, is committing billions to CoreWeave is a clear endorsement of its role in the broader AI ecosystem.
It comes on the heels of a fresh $6.3 billion order from NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA), cementing CoreWeave’s position in the slipstream of AI’s dominant hardware supplier.
Together, these updates mark a significant shift in perception. Instead of being viewed as a risky upstart with messy earnings, CoreWeave is increasingly being seen as an indispensable partner to the biggest names in AI.
For investors, this validation provides the kind of confidence and visibility that should fuel further momentum into Q4.
Reason #2: Analysts Back in Force
August’s ugly report may have dented confidence for a few weeks, but Wall Street is already getting back on board in a big way. This week alone, the team at Wells Fargo upgraded its rating on CoreWeave from Equal Weight to Overweight, echoing the stance taken by Raymond James last week.
Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, has been saying it expects “significant upward revisions” in the weeks ahead, further fueling the recovery momentum.
That kind of cluster of bullish calls is rarely a coincidence. It suggests that smart money is positioning for another move higher, even as retail investors might still be processing August’s miss.
The fact that updated price targets range as high as $180 implies a targeted upside of more than 30% speaks volumes, and gives the bulls plenty of ammunition to get the rally going again.
Reason #3: Momentum Is Surging
Beyond the strengthening fundamentals and bullish analyst outlook, CoreWeave’s technical picture is starting to look explosive. After falling more than 50% from June’s peak, the bears ran out of steam and threw in the towel at the start of September.
Since then, the stock has gained more than 50%, and key momentum indicators like its RSI and MACD are flashing green, green, green.
That matters because sentiment plays a significant role in early-stage, high-growth stocks. Once momentum starts to build, it often snowballs as short-term traders pile in, pushing the stock further and faster than fundamentals alone might justify.
For CoreWeave, the August high around $150 is the first big test - and if it can break through there, it opens the door to another leg higher that could easily cement its place as one of Q4’s hottest AI trades.
Why Q4 Could Be Explosive
Pulling it all together, CoreWeave has three things going for it right now: expanding contracts with marquee customers, heavyweight analyst backing, and a chart that has already gained 50% this month - all the ingredients you’d want for a sustained rally into the end of the year.
Of course, risks remain. The company’s August earnings report was a reminder that execution is critical, and volatility will be part of the ride. But for those with the stomach to handle sharp swings, CoreWeave is one of the more compelling AI names heading into Q4.
REVEALED: Something Big Happening Behind White House Doors
REVEALED: Something Big Happening Behind White House Doors
MarketBeat Media, LLC dba TickerReport
345 N Reid Place, Suite 620, Sioux Falls, SD 57103.