🎧 Oscar Noms: A Race Wide Open With Trump, Trans Issues in the MixI analyze the contenders with Esther Zuckerman and Richard Rushfield. Plus: What the picks reveal about the Academy now
Subscribe on Apple PodcastsMy heart was literally pounding as Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott started announcing the Academy Award nominees for best actress. I’m not related to any of the nominees, nor do I have any financial stake in any of their films. In theory I should be able to handle Oscar nominations morning with the cool objectivity expected of a journalist, or even the jaded cynicism of someone who has done this long enough to know that the best people don’t always get the nod. And yet, there I was once again, greeting the announcement with such intense anticipation, you would think I myself might be a contender. After all the anxiety, and some sore disappointment in the best actress category, I was left with one remarkably anodyne thought: Pretty good Oscar nominations, guys (for reference, they’re listed at the bottom of this newsletter). It remains a wide-open race, and anyone who tells you they know more today than they did yesterday about which film will win best picture is lying. But the nominations — now finally real, and not just the subject of endless speculation at Ankler Pundits — do tell us plenty about the state of play in this season, and about trends within the Academy in general. For much more, subscribe to the Prestige Junkie podcast, where Esther Zuckerman and I broke it all down moments after the nominations were announced, and you can also hear highlights from the Substack Live I did today with Richard Rushfield, answering all the big existential questions about these nominations and the state of Oscar more broadly. Want to listen in on the next Substack Live? You can hear it all in the podcast, but if you want to listen in on the next Substack live, become a paid subscriber to The Ankler and don’t miss a moment between now and the end of Oscar season. The Emilia Pérez Momentum Is Very Real
By winning a slew of Golden Globes just before the wildfires put a pall on the final weeks of nominations campaigning, Emilia Pérez found itself in pole position — but could that surge merely have been a mirage, spun up by Globe voters’ international bent? The film’s 13 nominations — the most-ever for a non-English language film — prove it was very much not. Jacques Audiard’s musical remains, until proven otherwise, your Oscar frontrunner. If Selena Gomez had gotten the supporting actress nomination that seemed plausible, Emilia Pérez would have tied All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land for the all-time nomination record. It still overperformed in all kinds of other places, including nominations for original score, cinematography and editing that not everyone was certain it would achieve. And even though her nomination has been presumed for months, it’s worth remembering that Karla Sofia Gascón has now made history as the first openly trans actress ever nominated for an Oscar. Which brings me to my next point … A ‘Courageous’ Trump Pic Ascends as Hollywood Bends to MAGAAs much as Hollywood appears to be conceding to the MAGA era, the Oscars may find themselves in a position that’s more aligned with the resistance era of 2017. Gascón’s nomination feels newly resonant given the anti-trans executive orders already issued by the Trump White House, while the documentary feature nomination for No Other Land will keep the humanitarian plight facing Palestinians in the West Bank in the spotlight after the Gaza ceasefire (even if the film continues without distribution). The live action short film A Lien, executive produced by Adam McKay, depicts a couple going in for their green card interview, and is described by the filmmakers as “a call to action for comprehensive immigration reform.” Even more pointed are the dual nominations for Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice, the movie that made everyone so nervous about Donald Trump’s potential reaction that it struggled to find distribution of its own. As of this writing the real Trump hasn’t yet lashed out about the Oscar nomination for this fictional account of his younger years at the elbow of the notorious Roy Cohn, but I imagine the presidential rant coming. If you’re Jeff Bezos and freshly returned home from the inaugural balls, are you going to have to sit at the Dolby and act disgusted when clips from The Apprentice play? Reacting to his nomination this morning, Strong cited Trump’s second inauguration as the direct result of Cohn’s influence: “Roy Cohn’s long, dark shadow was hanging over the Capitol Rotunda on Monday and his legacy of aggression, misinformation and untruth is now a Kingdom Come,” the actor wrote in an email. “This is a harrowing and courageous film that explores how we got to where we are today and was the role of a lifetime.” When The Apprentice was making its way through the fall festival season, I sensed a real Trump exhaustion and avoidance — who wanted to spend more time thinking about the guy? Now that he’s once again in power, the Ali Abbasi-directed biopic feels newly relevant. Neither Stan nor Strong seems likely to win their category, but I’ll be interested to see how the conversation around both of them continues from here. Strong also, on a lighter note, included a photo of himself as a child posing in front of a giant Oscar statue:
Best Actress Noms Align With Top Films in a Powerhouse RaceAll season the best actress race has felt thrillingly competitive, with — sorry, gentlemen — a much deeper bench of contenders than the best actor category giving several of the best performances of the decade, period. And now, it turns out, one of those all-timer turns didn’t make the cut. I had prepared myself emotionally for Marianne Jean-Baptiste to be left out for her earth-shattering work in Hard Truths, and yet, when her name wasn’t read this morning, I felt the disappointment all the same. Still, it’s a pretty phenomenal lineup! And notably, all five are actresses from best picture nominees, an Oscar alignment that’s rarer than you’d think — it hasn’t happened since 1977. Gascón and Anora’s Mikey Madison had long been seen as ironclad contenders given the strength of their films, joined later in the fall by Wicked’s Cynthia Erivo and then, after that stellar Golden Globes win, The Substance’s Demi Moore. That left, in theory, a single slot to be fought over by Oscar winners Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Kate Winslet (Lee), past nominees Jean-Baptiste (for Leigh’s 1996 drama Secrets & Lies) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch), sentimental favorite Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), and who knows, maybe June Squibb for Thelma? (Also a past nominee for 2013’s Nebraska, Squibb at 95 would have been Oscar’s oldest acting nominee ever.) The fact that in the end the fifth spot went to Fernanda Torres — now the second Brazilian actress nominated here, following her mother, Fernanda Montenegro — can be credited in part to her Golden Globe win a few weeks ago, not to mention the tremendous power of her performance. But there’s another factor at play that you can see all over these nominations. Global Reach: Film Academy Shows Its International Flair Emilia Pérez was also dominant at the European Film Awards last fall, an early sign of its potential Oscar strength — and its 13 nominations this morning are a very good indication of just how European the current Academy membership now leans. The best picture lineup includes three international productions in Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here and The Substance, and this is the first year that two films — Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here — were nominated for both best international feature and best picture. The last-minute surge of I’m Still Here could be credited to a variety of inputs. Torres’ Golden Globes win and subsequent interviews gave the film a major boost in the final days of nominations voting. The film is being distributed by Sony Pictures Classics, proven masters at this kind of late-breaking campaign. But it’s not hard to imagine that the Academy’s international contingent — now some 20 percent of voters — might have preferred I’m Still Here over American indies like A Real Pain and Sing Sing, which were both surprising best picture omissions. The Substance, meanwhile, feels like this year’s Triangle of Sadness, the audacious Ruben Östlund film that was filmed in English but felt very European and went from Cannes success to three Oscar nominations, including picture and director. The Substance has Triangle beat with five nominations, including the first-ever nod for Moore, and may very well win at least one Oscar. But it’s a similar blast of out-there fresh air from a bold European auteur — a type we’re likely to see more of at the Oscars going forward. One last note on Torres: She’s actually one of two nominees this year whose mother was also previously nominated. The other, of course, is Isabella Rossellini, nominated for best supporting actress for Conclave, the category in which her mother, Ingrid Bergman, won her third and final Oscar. Rossellini’s reaction video reflecting on this is really something to see.
So What About the Rest of the Best Picture Field? I feel a little like I’m being played offstage by the orchestra, rushed to finish my speech — there’s still so much to talk about! You can hear me get into all of this on the Prestige Junkie podcast, of course, and I’ll be back Monday with another newsletter that will dig further into the nitty-gritty of these nominations. But for now I’ll wrap it back up with best picture and the films that seem likeliest to challenge Emilia Pérez for the crown. The Brutalist and Wicked tied for second place with 10 nominations apiece, both representing very different but very large blocs of potential support. The Brutalist has the epic scope as well as the indie scrappiness that can make for appealing Oscar narratives, and — despite the AI brouhaha over tools used to enhance its stars’ Hungarian dialogue — has been nominated for virtually all of its impeccable crafts. Could the cinema snob contingent rally around The Brutalist, possibly at the expense of Anora, and push it over the top?  Wicked, meanwhile, is the great hope of traditional Hollywood, joining Dune: Part Two as the only best picture nominee produced by a major studio. But without nominations for director Jon M. Chu or its screenplay, does Denis Villeneuve’s sequel lack the core artistic bona fides to go all the way as best picture? It’s at least likelier than The Brutalist to siphon voters from Emilia Pérez, another musical about women facing down an unfair system. Fun fact: This is the first year since 1968 (!!) that two musicals have made the best picture lineup. By the numbers, the next-strongest contenders are A Complete Unknown and Conclave, which tied for eight nominations apiece. Conclave still seems to have potential as a consensus favorite among voters, but missing out on a best director nomination for Edward Berger is not a great sign of its overall strength. A Complete Unknown, meanwhile, is still in the thick of its successful box office run, and earned not only a best director nomination for James Mangold, but also a somewhat surprising spot for Monica Barbaro in supporting actress. Star Timothée Chalamet is set to headline SNL this weekend as both host and musical guest — the first non-professional singer to do this double duty in 30 years. Aside from I’m Still Here, A Complete Unknown may have the most momentum of any film represented in today’s nominations. Got a theory about why one of these titles — or maybe even Nickel Boys or The Substance — can win best picture? Found more fun historical facts to shed light on this year’s nominations? E-mail me at katey@theankler.com, and we’ll have all the time in the world to get into it next week. Once my heart rate goes back to normal, at least. A Complete List of the 2025 Oscar NomineesBest Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best International Feature Best Animated Feature Best Documentary Feature Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Original Score Best Original Song Best Production Design Best Editing Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Live-Action Short Best Animated Short Best Documentary Short Follow us: X | Facebook | Instagram | Threads ICYMI
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