The Sunak-Starmer Re-Balancing ActThere's a British version of the Biden-DeSantis "post-populist" moment.
If you recall the last British general election, back in 2019, you may remember a — how to put this? — colorful contrast. The bumptious buffoon, Boris, for the Tories, and the anti-semitic socialist, Jeremy Corbyn, made a populist duo of sorts — both insurgents, both rebels, both darlings of the furthermost wings of their respective parties, both with bad hair, ill-fitting clothes, and bad teeth. And now look, just three and a half years later: the diminutive, slickly-dressed technocrat, Rishi Sunak, and the boringly pudgy centrist, Keir Starmer. Both rose through the meritocratic ranks, won plaudits from their fellow partisans, wooed the Establishment, and both represent the inklings of the way British politics usually has been: no huge surprises, no massive polarizing divides, just a sharp but civil contest for the center. I wrote recently of the promise of DeSantis and Biden in re-balancing American politics, toward a saner middle. I think something similar could be happening with Sunak and Starmer in my native land. Which is, I hasten to add, encouraging. The basic politics remains starkly in Starmer’s favor. Labour’s lead in the opinion polls is almost 2-1. If Keir doesn’t become the next prime minister, I’ll be smacked right in the gob. After Boris’ endless lies and Liz Truss’ spontaneous combustion, the Tories have yet to recover meaningfully. They’ve been in power continuously since 2010, and it’s time for a change. Views of the economy are in the toilet. The Tory government seems like a dead parrot squawking. A new election will happen next year. How has Sunak responded? Well, he has apparently decided, like Joe Biden, that getting normal but useful shit done is the way to do it. Since Sunak became PM, he has negotiated a settlement to Brexit’s Northern Ireland protocol, the vexing arrangement for having a trade barrier between the UK and the EU in Ireland, without a new border wall which could ignite new violence. Boris never figured this out, but Sunak, with a charm offensive, has finagled a new scheme on the mainland, with a “red channel” for checked goods from the UK to the EU separated from a “green channel” for un-checked goods from the UK to the EU. Sunak got the new deal through parliament, despite a Brexity rebellion among some Tory MPs (including Johnson and Truss!) by a margin of 515 to 29. After a glad-handing session with the EU’s Ursula Von Der Leyen, Sunak was on his way to a confab with President Macron, where the two tiny technocrats clearly vibed. The UK was making peace again with its neighbors, and sent King Charles to Germany this week to show even more love. In another direction, just last night, the Sunak government announced that the UK would soon be joining the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Not a huge deal — but a step forward in repairing the free trade hole left by Brexit. What about the looming crisis of the Union with Scotland? That too seems to have dissipated, after the popular first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, resigned, with the polls now showing a big rebound in support for sticking with the UK. On the economy, the recession has not been as severe as many feared, and the winter not as hard. Sunak has one clear populist message: stopping the small boats carrying illegal migrants across the channel from entering the UK. Sound familiar? Sunak has pledged, as Biden just did, to presumptuously deny asylum to those arriving illegally — by detaining them, including children, with the aim of sending them to a third country. There’s huge public support for this — especially, as Matt Goodwin explains here, in those former Labour seats Boris won in 2019 and Rishi needs in 2024, even as the entire media class is, of course, appalled. It may not work, but if the numbers fall dramatically from the current 45,000 or so a year, Sunak will be rewarded. His ratings have risen slowly but consistently, and now show Sunak competitive with Starmer in the prime minister popularity stakes. Which brings me to my old mate, Keir. He’s riding high in the polls, but took this week to get a vote on the Labour Party’s National Executive Committee to bar former party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, from running as a Labour candidate for his old constituency. The Corbyn left is appalled, likening Starmer to Putin, calling the ouster a “venal and duplicitous act.” Middle England, and Labour’s Jewish members, will be relieved. On crime, Starmer does not sound like an urban US Democrat. Last week, in a big crime speech, he denounced the idea of “low-level crimes” as dangerously permissive, and called for more effective policing: “Nearly every person I meet has at least one story, an interaction with the police where something just wasn’t followed up … People give up. They stop bothering.” He went on: “There’s a family in my constituency, every night cannabis smoke creeps in from the street outside into their children’s bedroom — aged four and six. That’s not low-level, it’s ruining their lives.” He’s dead against cannabis legalization (even as the public supports it). And as a former prosecutor, he shows real passion on crime’s pernicious effect on the poor: it’s been “working people who pay the heaviest price” for chaos and crime in the streets. Then he said of the Tories: “their kids don’t go to the same schools … the threat of violence doesn’t stalk their communities.” Sex changes for children? When Starmer was asked whether you are old enough at 16 to legally change sex, he replied, “No, I don’t think you are.” When Scotland passed a new gender recognition bill, allowing self-identification as the opposite sex as young as 16, Sunak’s Tories blocked the bill. Starmer sided with Sunak. There’s a reason a big trans rally recently broke out into chants of “Fuck Keir Starmer!” Starmer is a lefty on economics. But he has refused to take the bait and reopen the Brexit question, has rebuked anti-semitism in his party and kicked Corbyn out, has brandished his anti-crime credentials, and cleared some space between him and the more radical trans activists. He seems, in other words, serious about regaining power for the center-left. As Sunak, in his own way, is dragging the Tories back to the center. I don’t think it’s wise to dismiss Sunak’s chances entirely — Thatcher’s successor, John Major, was in a very similar situation in 1992 and still won a fourth Tory election victory, to everyone’s shock. But it’s worth noting that a Starmer government would be far closer to Sunak’s than a Corbyn government would have been to Johnson’s; that a more radical right approach, Liz Truss’, went down in flames; and that the public is warming again to the boring men in suits and nice haircuts. For which, much thanks. And some small measure of post-populist hope. (Note to readers: This is an excerpt of The Weekly Dish. If you’re already a subscriber, click here to read the full version. This week’s issue also includes: a brief note on Trump’s indictment; my two ideas on how the MSM can better cover the Nashville shootings and trans stories; my conversation with Jon Ward on his life inside the “Christian evangelical bubble”; reader and listener dissents over the alphabet people and Orwellian language; two quotes that sum up the Dem and Never Trumper desire to see Trump win the nomination; 16 pieces on Substack we recommend on a variety of topics; a Mental Health Break of dramatic final shots from cinema; a honeycombed window view from NYC and a heavenly one from Utah; and, of course, the results of the View From Your Window contest — with a new, especially tricky challenge. Subscribe for the full Dish experience!) A quick note from a Dishhead:
The IndictmentMy brief initial thoughts are here, for paid subscribers. The Press And The Nashville ShootingsIt’s good to expose right-wing attempts to associate all trans people with the Nashville mass-shooter of unknown gender. Glenn Kessler does the statistical job here. It’s also legit to write second-day stories about the impact on trans people more generally, as many outlets did, especially in the context of Tennessee’s legislation. But I have two suggestions for other stories. Read the whole piece here, for paid subscribers. New On The Dishcast: Jon Ward
Jon is the chief national correspondent for Yahoo News and the host of “The Long Game” podcast. His first book was Camelot’s End: Kennedy v Carter and the Fight that Broke the Democratic Party, and his new book is Testimony: Inside the Evangelical Movement that Failed a Generation. You can also follow Jon’s writing on his substack, Border-Stalkers, and on his website, jonwardwrites.org. Listen to the episode here. There you can find two clips of our convo — on the joys of being an evangelical Christian, and the sexual struggles of male evangelicals. That link also takes you to commentary on last week’s talk with Hannah Barnes on her Tavistock exposé, along with reader reaction to the Nashville massacre and much more. We also just posted a transcript with James Alison on Christianity. Browse the Dishcast archive for another discussion you might enjoy (the first 102 episodes are free in their entirety). A listener points to a future episode:
She actually just accepted our invitation, so stay tuned. As always, please send your pod feedback and guest recs to dish@andrewsullivan.com. Dissent Of The Week: This Isn’t 1984A trans reader responds to my Orwell-inspired piece:
Read the rest of the dissent here, along with my response. Thanks as always for the great dissents — send yours to dish@andrewsullivan.com. In The ‘StacksThis is a feature in the paid version of the Dish spotlighting about 20 of our favorite pieces from other Substackers every week. This week’s selection covers international topics in Israel, India, China, Syria, Iraq, Canada and the UK. Below are a few other examples:
You can also browse all the substacks we follow and read on a regular basis here — a combination of our favorite writers and new ones we’re checking out. It’s a blogroll of sorts. If you have any recommendations for “In the ‘Stacks,” especially ones from emerging writers, please let us know: dish@andrewsullivan.com. The View From Your Window Contest
Where do you think it’s located? Email your guess to contest@andrewsullivan.com. Please put the location — city and/or state first, then country — in the subject line. Proximity counts if no one gets the exact spot. Bonus points for fun facts and stories. The winner gets the choice of a VFYW book or two annual Dish subscriptions. If you are not a subscriber, please indicate that status in your entry and we will give you a free month subscription if we select your entry for the contest results (example here if you’re new to the contest). Happy sleuthing! The results for this week’s window are coming in a separate email to paid subscribers later today. Here’s a titillating entry from last week:
We’re taking Holy Week off as our spring break. See you the Friday after the Good one. Happy Easter and Passover!
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