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Mark **** DECEMBER 6, 2022 FACE-OFFS1. Herschel Walker versus the future OUTLOOK: Nearly every Republican with access to data is bearish on the former footballer’s prospects in Tuesday’s primary. BET ON: Walker not becoming a senator or running for anything ever again. **** 2. Rick Scott versus Mitch McConnell OUTLOOK: A net loss of seats for the NRSC in a cycle in which they had visions of a 55-45 majority. BET ON: Team Scott getting more of the blame. **** 3. Congressional leaders with an ambitious lame duck to-do list versus Halperin’s Third Rule of Congress (Congress only acts when it absolutely has to, at the last possible moment – and sometimes not even then.) OUTLOOK: Efforts by both parties (but mostly the Democrats) to load up the budget and Pentagon bill with unrelated want-to-pass provisions and the impending House majority means everything pushes towards the holidays, with eight simultaneous games of chicken. BET ON: Must-pass and just 1.5 other provisions passing around Xmas. **** 4. Facebook versus Capitol Hill OUTLOOK: We have seen this film before and we will see it again. BET ON: Facebook. **** 5. Joe Biden versus those who don’t like Joe Biden’s 2024 presidential nominating calendar proposal OUTLOOK: Georgia Republicans, Team Sanders, and New Hampshire Democrats all reject the Biden Idea, with more threads already pulled than by five bored cats working on a tattered sweater. BET ON: A month of more twists and turns and an outcome that only hazily looks like the Biden Idea. **** 6. Those who think the Mar-a-Lago dinner and trashing the Constitution represent, finally, the turning point on Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party versus the past as prologue OUTLOOK: Marc Thiessen and Gerard Baker think time should be up, as a matter of principle and politics BET ON: The voters (always, always, bet on the voters). **** 7. Donald Trump versus the 2024 field OUTLOOK: CNN says some in Trump’s orbit believe he isn’t campaigning aggressively enough after announcing his bid. BET ON: Nothing and no one, until July 1, 2023. **** 8. Glenn Youngkin versus expectations OUTLOOK: The Associated Press says that Youngkin ’24 is made up 50% of a glass that is exactly half full and 50% of a glass that is exactly half empty. BET ON: A late decision about whether to jump in the race, based on metrics.
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