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Mark **** WHAT I KNOW* The smartest and most spot-on analysis of the Senate races in the midterms was issued all the way back in the summer by one of America’s most insightful political pundits:
Yup, that mid-August declaration at a Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce luncheon by Addison Mitchell McConnell III is as true in the closing days of this campaign as it was when he uttered it. * It says nothing good about the short-term prospects of the Democrats or the medium-term prospects of Vice President Harris that she is spending the week in the very Bluest of states -- Massachusetts, New York, and Illinois (akin to President Biden’s closing the campaign season in Maryland, My Maryland):
* Late Democratic spending in House districts previously thought to be safe leads to the conclusion that the party is likely to lose some unexpected incumbents (and Democratic-held open seats), including, I would guess, in New York and other Blue havens, meaning we could end up in net R +30 territory. * The voters who will decide the midterms are paying less attention to the details of the Pelosi matter than elites are. * A rained-out World Series game is not like kissing Nastassja Kinski. * The news cycle’s best explanation of the likely Red tsunami comes from Gerard Baker, deploying the metaphor of Monty Python’s dead parrot:
* Elon Musk is like a less stable Kim Jong-un (who is like a less stable Ye). * Democrats are going to look back at 2022 and wonder why they didn’t listen to those among them who pointed out back in the spring that the problem wasn’t messaging on the economy, crime, and immigration – it was a problem of policy. * When it comes to the media, what doesn’t kill Kari Lake makes her stronger – a la Trump ’16. * The more things change, the more the New York Post stays the same:
* Democrats are still underestimating how much the issues of education (fairly) and IRS agents (demagogically) are hurting them politically. * The legislative agenda of the lame duck session will be determined by the outcome of the midterms and the realities of space, time, and distance. **** WHAT I DON’T KNOW* Why the only two instances of Donald Trump demonstrating public discipline occurred at the end of the 2016 and 2022 campaign seasons. * How to stop gun violence in Chicago. * Which of these Monday tweets from the “Twitter Complaint Hotline Operator” will matter most long term:  If I had a dollar for every time someone asked me if Trump is coming back on this platform, Twitter would be minting money! * How the Supreme Court will rule on affirmative action in the wake of Monday’s arguments. * Why there is so much elite U.S. interest in the Brazil election (as compared to the normal level of reaction to the political outcomes in other lands). * Why it was apparently so easy to break into the Pelosi home. * When and how the war in Ukraine will end. * How Doctor Oz is going to win with such cruddy fav/unfav numbers and with his having to outrun the top of the ticket in an extremely lopsided gubernatorial contest. * Why the Iowa Senate race and Oklahoma and Kansas gubernatorial contests are what they are. * What percentage of the blame Donald Trump will get if Oz, Walker, Vance, and Masters all lose (which is still possible!). * Who is more brilliant than Taylor Swift (if anyone). * How much of his massive campaign bank account Ron DeSantis will spend down in the closing week – and how his reelect numbers with key demographics (Hispanic, female, and Black voters) will compare to Jeb Bush’s reelect figures. * If House Republicans will have learned anything from the personnel decisions and staging expertise that were part of the success of the 1/6 hearings. * How serious Kari Lake and Glenn Youngkin are about 2024. * How much it costs to produce an episode of “The Five” (not counting talent pay). * What Attorney General Garland is going to do with the timing of four potentially parallel events: the Joe Biden announcement about 2024; the Hunter Biden charging decision; the Donald Trump announcement about 2024; the Donald Trump charging decision. **** ESSENTIAL READING* Republican strategist Doug Heye, with a Washington Post op-ed piece condemning his own party (and the Democrats) for their modern day sins, the kind of clear-eyed, civil analysis/rebuke of both sides that is all too rare:
* * The current century, in three tweets:
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© 2022 Mark Halperin
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