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	Open in browser 61, 2022, 2023 2024 Mark Halperin Sep 29   ▷  Listen SAVE   New York Yankees @Yankees 61 years since 61. Aaron Judge has written his name alongside Roger Maris in baseball's record books. September 29th 2022 28,540 Retweets87,404 Likes **** Please consider becoming a voluntary paying subscriber to support the independent journalism of Wide World of News today. You can subscribe at fixed monthly or annual rates here – or become a vaunted Founding Member at the rate of your choice over and above the annual rate. Upgrade to paid If you would like to contribute to the cause without becoming a formal subscriber (or supplement your subscription cost, as many generously do…), you can give the amount of your choice via: * Buy me a cocktail (at DC prices….), tax and server tip included, by clicking here. * Buy me a cup of coffee (or a week’s worth) by clicking here. * Check. send a simple email to markhalperintalk@gmail.com and ask where you can send a piece of paper. • PayPal. markhalperinnyc@gmail.com • Venmo. Mark-Halperin-4 (telephone number ends in x3226) • Zelle. markhalperinnyc@gmail.com Thank you for your support. Mark Upgrade to paid **** 1. Karl Rove speaks on the consensus Republican view on the House outlook: With a modestly better political standing than six months ago, Democrats are playing up expectations that they could keep the House by pointing to their special-election performances. Republicans are more reserved about their outlook, but it’s highly likely the GOP wins most of the competitive races and takes the House. And there will be surprises—good and bad—for each side. Candidate quality matters and both parties nominated some knuckleheads. The red wave will likely generate a smaller midterm swing than the average, which since 1934 has been 28 House seats. Republicans are likely to gain closer to 20 than 25. But that’s partly because the GOP got a head start in 2020 by picking up 14 House seats. A net gain of 20 seats this fall would give Republicans 233—the GOP had 230 in 1995 when Newt Gingrich was elected speaker. HALPERIN SAYS: Not surprisingly, Rove has found the data-driven sweet spot between Democratic spin and the overly optimistic claims from some GOP quarters; while a tweak or two could still occur before Election Day, you can pretty much lock in these numbers (barring a Martian invasion….). **** 2. John Thune speaks on the consensus Republican view on the Senate outlook: John Thune, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, largely echoed McConnell’s predictions on Wednesday, suggesting that Democrats were focusing on “shiny objects.” “My experience through the years, even in years when we’ve been protecting incumbents in a bad environment, is that when the fundamentals of an election lock in and for the voters the issues get clarified, it usually does kind of generate a bit of momentum for one side or the other,” Thune told reporters. “And honestly, I think that happens for us this year. I just think that the pocketbook issues are going to be paramount and all these other issues Democrats are trying to shift attention to are kind of shiny objects.” “But in the end,” he added, “it’s the economy, the cost of food, the cost of gas, security, where people feel safe in their neighborhoods and communities.” HALPERIN SAYS: The conventional wisdom is right – continue to focus primarily on one Republican-held seat (Pennsylvania) and two Democratic-held ones (Nevada and Georgia) to tell the tale – but don’t forget three additional Republican-held slots (Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Carolina) (meaning Democrats are actually still more likely to hold the majority than not). **** 3. Sleeper story of the day from the Wall Street Journal: How the Putin-caused energy crisis in Germany threatens that nation’s economy. HALPERIN SAYS: The Germans still holding strong in opposition to the Russian invasion remains the most pleasantly surprising development of 2022. **** 4. Essential reading: The New York Post and Washington Post accounts of President Biden’s search for a deceased Republican lawmaker – and how White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre tried to explain away her boss’ behavior. HALPERIN SAYS: This is a benchmark (but storm obscured) moment in two long-running and intertwined narratives that history will not treat kindly: Team Biden’s persistent (and also both tactically and strategically brilliant) coverup of the president’s condition and the Dominant Media’s belief that lingering affection for Joe Biden and (more) its TDS require it to marvel at the splendid outfit of new clothes that Mr. Biden wears daily. **** 5. Gavin Newsom ’24 remains the fourth-most important story regarding the next Democratic presidential campaign field. Gavin Newsom @GavinNewsom Here’s what the @GOP don’t want you to know: - 8 of the 10 states with the highest murder rates are Republican states - CA actually has lower middle class tax rates than TX - The gun death rate in Texas is 67% higher @WagnerTonight September 28th 2022 16,143 Retweets43,075 Likes HALPERIN SAYS: The top three: (1) Will Joe Biden run for re-election?; (2) If Joe Biden doesn’t run, does Vice President Harris have an actual hard-nosed plan to win the nomination?; (3) Beyond the usual lazy lists (Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, Newsom), who are the actual secret planners and hopefuls who will mount spirited challenges to Harris (and Newsom) if the incumbent takes a pass? **** 6. Essential reading: Gary Abernathy’s short history of his 2016 support for Donald Trump in the White House --> his 2022 opposition to more Donald Trump in the White House. HALPERIN SAYS: All these folks saying they hope Trump won’t run (or predicting he won’t) definitely need a backup plan. **** 7. No veteran journalist showed more kindness to and shared more professional lessons with this reporter than the legendary CBS News correspondent Bill Plante, whose passing arguably ends an era – and breaks my heart. HALPERIN SAYS: Have a glass in heaven while I toast you here, Bill. **** Have Mark Halperin (that’s me!) speak to your group, company, or meeting in person or virtually on politics, media, government, metaphors, or whatever else you would like. Midterm analysis, 2024 predictions, jokes, and Q/A all included! Send an email to markhalperintalk@gmail.com to inquire about rates and to set up an event. Share You’re a free subscriber to Wide World of News. For the full experience, become a paid subscriber. Upgrade to paid © 2022 Mark Halperin Email Mark if you need his physical mailing address. Unsubscribe